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Weekly Market Recap Jun 10, 2018

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Last week was much like the ones we saw throughout 2017!  Up, up, up nice and slow…. with little volatility.   And new record highs.  Market news was quiet in general despite “global trade tensions”.   Really ….it was difficult to find much market moving news!  (Insert crickets chirping hee)

For the week the S&P 500 closed up 1.6% while the NASDAQ added 1.2%.  Some catch up from the S&P 500 after lagging the NASDAQ of late.

In economic data, U.S. factory orders fell by 0.8% in April, driven by a decline in commercial aircraft.  Tuesday, ISM services surged to 58.6 in May from 56.8 – any reading over 50 signals expansion and this one is near 60!  The U.S. trade deficit shrank 2.1% in April—before the Trump tariffs took effect—and tumbled to a seven-month low. But the gap is still on track to widen in 2018 to the highest level in a decade.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 …via Jill Mislinski.

Elon Musk has launched a company to build tunnels underground.  He is selling flamethrowers at $500 a pop to help fund said company.   The first 1000 were sold last weekend.  This is a real story.  Seriously.

The devices, technically called “Not a Flamethrower” to skirt federal shipping regulations, shoot a two-foot flame.

The company had a good week even aside from that, surging 9.7% Wednesday, after Chief Executive Elon Musk told shareholders that the electric-car maker was “quite likely” to meet its production goal of 5,000 Model 3 cars a week.

The week ahead…

President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un will meet in Singapore on June 12; on the same day, the Federal Reserve will kick off its two day policy meeting. On Wednesday, the Fed has essentially telegraphed a rate hike to investors.  The ECB is expected on Thursday to outline its plan for eventually winding down its purchase of monthly bond buys—a process many economists expect to be completed by the end of the year.

May retail sales Thursday are expected to hit at +0.3%.

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500 finally broke out of this range marked in yellow.

The Russell 2000 was the first to breakout and still looks strong albeit over extended.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator remains in a positive spot.

Long term: Still very positive for the “buy and never sell” crowd.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Monday, Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) plunged 42% after “underwhelming” results from clinical trials of its cancer drugs in combination with Bristol-Myers Squibb’s cancer drug Opdivo.

Twitter (TWTR) is joining the S&P 500 index!  The stock reacted positively to the news Tuesday.

Thursday, Five Below (FIVE) jumped 22% after the discount retailer late Wednesday reported earnings that beat forecasts.

Furniture retailer Conn’s (CONN) jumped 21% Thursday after reporting earnings that topped forecasts.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



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Strategies & Ideas

Safi Bahcall Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Safi Bahcall
Safi Bahcall

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Safi Bahcall is an American technologist, business executive, and author. He has presented at over 130 banking conferences, investor events, and medical meetings around the world, as well as at leading academic institutions. His book “Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries” is out.

Safi grew up with parents who were highly acclaimed physicists. He was indoctrinated with the mindset of looking at the world and asking, “Why?” Even to this day, he has those discussions of asking, “Why” with his parents. It has given him an inquisitive perspective – always looking at things from multiple angles.

What is a loonshot? Loonshots are how big achievements, money, fame and recognition are produced. They are leaps of faith grounded in asking good questions. In keeping a questioning mindset you may find the twist that gives you the answer to what everyone else is missing. This asking mindset can be applied across all fields – military, government, technology, medicine, politics, social media, etc. Safi exposes some of these loonshots with examples going back to Alexander Graham Bell, WWII, Apple and many others.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Social media companies
  • Loonshots
  • National research system of the U.S.
  • Leader mindsets
  • Innovation
  • Good companies vs. Failing companies
  • Early stage ideas
  • Apple
  • Steve Jobs
  • AT&T
  • Bell Labs

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Weekly Market Recap Mar 17, 2019

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A very good week for market bulls as the prior week’s selling was all reversed.  Last week we asked how many times can we rally on the same Federal Reserve juice.  It seems indefinitely.  Jerome Powell went on ’60 Minutes’ and talked dovish – that sparked a big rally Monday and it continued all week.  The only down day all week was Thursday when the progress on the U.S. – China trade deal seemed to hit a delay.

A meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be delayed until at least April, Bloomberg News reported, indicating that a bilateral trade deal will not be finalized this month.  The news comes after Trump told reporters in the White House on Wednesday that he was in no rush to strike a trade agreement.

For the week, the S&P 500 added 2.9% and the NASDAQ rocketed 3.8%.

There had been a massive reversal a week ago Friday in the Chinese market, but it held in pretty well this week after a big move up.  This is an interesting chart to watch as all signs point to a slowdown in their economy but their central regulators are trying to juice the system as well.

Investors digested comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Beijing’s No. 2 leader after President Xi Jinping, who expressed optimism that a trade deal between China and the U.S. can be achieved that suits both parties.  Li also addressed weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and pledged to maintain strong stimulus measures, such as lowering interest rates, cutting bank reserve ratios, and slashing taxes for consumers and businesses.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 … not via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting hits March 19-20 – nothing but cheering for markets going up and more “patience” expected.

“The Fed is on pause and we don’t expect any major change to Fed Policy next week,” Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist for LPL Financial. “But we do wonder if they will follow Europe’s lead and lower GDP expectations as the global slowdown continues.”

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500 is once again touching our trendline from below – that’s the third time since mid February.

The Russell 2000 is starting to show signs of relative weakness vs the other 2 indexes.  That was a theme for almost all of 2018 although had not been the case the past few months.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator was red all week – yet a massive rally.  Interesting.

Long term: The S&P 500 made a massive reversal after looking like bears may have made a stand on the long term chart.  Not so much.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Monday, Boeing (BA) had its worst day in nearly five months, falling 5.3%, after one of the company’s 737 Max 8 planes crashed.  It fell another 6.2% Tuesday as countries across the world began grounding those jets.

It was another rough week for brick & mortar retail.  Tuesday, Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) skidded 11% after the retailer reported a 6.3% decline in fourth-quarter sales.

Express (EXPR) sank 10% Wednesday after the fashion apparel retailer beat fourth-quarter profit expectations but missed on net sales and provided first-quarter outlook that was worse than forecasts.

Dollar General (DG) sank 7.5% after the discount retailer reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit that missed expectations and provided a downbeat earnings and sales outlook.

Friday, Bioscrip (BIOS) sank 20% after the company announced a deal to merge with privately held Option Care Enterprises Inc.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



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Dana Cavalea Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Dana Cavalea and Mariano Rivera
Dana Cavalea and Mariano Rivera

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Dana Cavalea is the former strength, conditioning and performance coach for the New York Yankees and author of, “Habits of a Champion, Nobody Becomes a Champion By Accident.” He started in baseball as an underperforming player, knowing he would never make it to the major leagues. In 2002, at 19 years old, he was given the opportunity to be a towel/weight room cleanup guy for the Yankee’s – he quickly jumped at the chance.

How did Dana make the move from towel guy to strength and conditioning coach? Core and functional training was just taking off in the world of sports. He committed himself to learning everything he could in that sports niche. Players would give him the chance to teach them different stretching techniques (on the side of their other training). His tips were working and players confidence in him and his confidence in himself snowballed.

Dana gave players two things other trainers weren’t providing: 1. He could find immediate ways to locate and alleviate pain. He took players like Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter and found where their pain was and gave them tips and tricks to help relieve some pain to get them on the field for their next game. 2. He built relationships with players outside of the stadium. Dana would go to breakfast, lunch and dinner with players and gain comradeship. When players know, like and trust you, you win them over.

As a New York native Dana grew up loving the game of baseball. And as a player himself, he always wanted to know what the pros “edge” was. His new book (and this podcast) is packed full of how players like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Andy Pettitte, and Jorge Posada think. He shares what gives baseball’s elite players the edge needed to be a winner–lessons we can all use baseball players or not.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Importance of routine
  • Derek Jeter
  • Talent vs. work ethic in pro sports
  • Science behind training
  • Yoga
  • Mindfulness
  • Meditation
  • Downshifting the nervous system

“Focus on the process and let the results create themselves.” – Dana Cavalea

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