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US Dollar Range Continues as Inflation Prints at One-Year Highs

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US Dollar Range Continues as Inflation Prints at One-Year Highs

Talking Points:

Fundamental Forecast for USD: Neutral

The Quarterly Forecast for the US Dollar has just been released for Q2, Click here for full access to the DailyFX Q2 Forecasts.

The US Dollar started the week on a rough note, continuing the bearish move that started to show around last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. In short order, DXY had fallen back-below the 90.00 level, and bears remained in force all the way into Wednesday’s US session, at which point a bit of support began to show at a familiar area around 89.50. This was the same zone that held the lows in the Greenback for the first few weeks of March, and this led into a corrective move as prices moved back towards the 90.00 level. The net of this week’s price action has been an indecisive move lower as the intermediate-term range continued.

US Dollar Eight-Hour Chart: February/March Range Continues into April

US Dollar Range Continues as Inflation Prints at One-Year Highs

Chart prepared by James Stanley

US Inflation at One-Year Highs as USD Weakness Stokes Higher Prices

There was a big driver unveiled on Wednesday that helped that support to come into play, and that was the release of US inflation numbers for the month of March. That report showed strength in inflation as both headline and core CPI came-out at one-year-highs, and both data points were above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Headline inflation remains strong, as we’ve now seen seven consecutive months of inflation at two-percent or more; and even core CPI has crossed the 2% marker, making a stronger case for that fourth hike this year out of the Fed.

US CPI Prints at One-Year Highs; Seven Consecutive Months At-or-Above the Fed’s 2% Target

US Dollar Range Continues as Inflation Prints at One-Year Highs

prepared by James Stanley

Currency Weakness Brings Stronger Inflation – But Lacking Follow-Thru

Normally, stronger rates of inflation bring strength into a currency as market participants look to capture the new, higher rate of return. This is the ‘carry trade’ and it’s one of the most attractive strategies in FX markets when it’s actually at work. That theme has been noticeably missing from the US Dollar over the past year. The Fed remains hawkish and continues to look at tighter policy options. But the US Dollar has continued to show weakness, selling-off by as much as 15% from last year’s high to this year’s low. This indicates that there’s another driver at work, at least on a longer-term basis, that’s acting as a hindrance to a stronger bullish advance. We’ve discussed this multiple times in the recent past, and this point remains as pertinent as we move deeper into 2018.

Next Week’s Economic Calendar

Next week’s economic calendar is noticeably light on US issues. The lone high-impact report that we receive is on Monday morning ahead of the US equity open, and this is the release of retail sales numbers for the month of March. This could certainly help to evoke some near-term volatility in the Greenback, as this is the first look we get at consumer behavior for the most recently completed month; but it’s unlikely to carry enough force to alter the longer-term or bigger picture move. The big question around that release is whether it can help the Dollar firm long enough for resistance to come into play, at which point the bigger-picture down-trend becomes attractive again for continuation.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: High-Impact USD Events for Week of April 16, 2018

US Dollar Range Continues as Inflation Prints at One-Year Highs

prepared by James Stanley

Fundamental Forecast for Next Week

The fundamental forecast for the US Dollar will be set to neutral for next week. While the longer-term bearish trend remains attractive, strength in this week’s inflation print makes the prospect of another hike out of the Federal Reserve this year a bit more likely; and this makes the prospect of a ‘squeeze-type’ of scenario in USD a bit stronger. The Dollar sold-off after the March rate hike as the Fed shared an expectation for an additional two hikes in the year; but the dot plot matrix looked very close to a median expectation of an additional three moves. This week’s inflation print highlights even more price pressure in the United States after last year’s sell-off in the Dollar, and this could put even more motivation behind the argument for three additional hikes (for a total of four in the calendar year of 2018) for this year out of the Fed.

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2018/04/12/us-dollar-downtrend-pulls-back-eurusd-to-support-after-ecb-minutes-srepstans.html



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Forex

AUD/USD May Fall With Asia Stocks After Wall Street Volatility

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Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

  • British Pound and New Zealand Dollars climbed. Former enjoyed Brexit news, latter rallied on CPI
  • S&P 500 recovered after risk-aversion dominated US markets on shutdown news. USD depreciated
  • AUD/USD may fall as market mood sours in Asia, jobs data misses expectations. Eyes chart support

See our study on the history of trade wars to learn how it might influence financial markets!

The British Pound and New Zealand Dollar were some of the best performing majors on Wednesday. Sterling continued rallying amid ebbing ‘No-Deal’ Brexit bets despite UK Prime Minister Theresa May leaving the door open to one. Meanwhile, the Kiwi Dollar enjoyed fading expectations of an RBNZ rate cut this year after a better-than-expected local inflation report.

For pro-risk currencies such as the Australian Dollar, the US trading session offered little fuel to extend their gains. White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett spoke and warned the continuation of the government shutdown could result in near-zero growth. After gapping higher, the S&P 500 traded lower as domestic government bonds rallied. After a slight rally later, the index closed +0.22%.

This signaled a flight-to-safety as risk capital flowed into haven assets. The US Dollar, which tends to benefit in this scenario, failed to capitalize on gains and ended the day cautiously lower. Falling yields alongside a fading Fed rate hike bets may have been a more prominent influence. Meanwhile the anti-risk Japanese Yen still ended the day lower, perhaps due to the Bank of Japan lowering inflation expectations.

Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump warned China that tariffs could increase should a trade deal not be reached. As the markets then transitioned into Thursday’s session, the White House requested data on if the shutdown prolongs into March. This showed that it may continue for the time being. As such, these developments may adversely impact Asia Pacific benchmark stock indexes as markets turn risk-averse.

This could boost the Japanese Yen at the expense of the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Australia’s December jobs report will also cross the wires. Data out of the country has been tending to underperform relative to economists’ expectations as of late. Such an outcome could increase expectations of an RBA rate cut as AUD/USD falls. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 34% chance of a cut later this year.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The continuation pattern outlined in my weekly Australian Dollar forecast appears to have been broken on the AUD/USD chart below. Typically, a “Pennant” is a continuation pattern. The descent under it may open the door to losses instead. Near-term support is at 0.70211 with resistance around 0.71645.

Each week I conduct a poll to see which Aussie crosses to cover in the technical forecast. You can participate in the poll by following me on twitter @ddubrovskyFX as well as to see timely updates on the Aussie Dollar.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart of AUD/USD

Chart created in TradingView

US Trading Session

Chart of US Trading Session

Asia Pacific Trading Session

Chart of Asia Pacific Trading Session

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here

FX Trading Resources

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter



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Traders Net-Long Increases from Last Week

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EURUSD

65.7% OF TRADERS ARE NET-LONG

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 65.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.91 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 10 when EURUSD traded near 1.1554; price has moved 1.6% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Dec 31 when EURUSD traded near 1.1464. The number of traders net-long is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 27.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.2% lower than yesterday and 4.3% higher from last week.

To gain more insight to how we use sentiment to power our trading, join us for our weekly Trading Sentiment webinar.

EURUSD SENTIMENT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BEARISH BIAS

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Having trouble developing your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make.

— Written by Nancy Pakbaz, CFA, DailyFX Research



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Oil Risks Larger Recovery as Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Takes Shape

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Oil Talking Points

Oil prices remain bid even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduces its global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020, and the ongoing efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the energy market may spur a larger recovery in crude as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation takes shape.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Oil Risks Larger Recovery as Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Takes Shape

Image of daily change for crude oil prices

Fresh comments from OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo suggest the group will continue to cut production over the coming months as the official insists that the ‘the market has started to respond positively’ at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and the current environment raises the risk for higher crude prices as Mr. Barkindo goes onto say that ‘we are beginning to see very sharp reductions in supply.’

Image of EIA U.S. field production of crude oil

In fact, OPEC and its allies may curb production throughout 2019 as updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show field production climbing to 11,900K in the week ending January 11 after holding steady at 11,700K for three consecutive weeks, and the group may continue to combat the stickiness in Non-OPEC supply especially as Russia Minister of Energy, Alexander Novak¸ endorses a price range of $55-65bbl.

With that said, the advance from the December-low ($42.36) may gather pace as oil prices break out of the downward trend carried over from late-2018, with developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fostering a constructive outlook for crude as the oscillator bounces back from oversold territory and carves a bullish formation. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Oil Daily Chart

Image of crude oil daily chart

  • Crude stages a near-term rebound following the failed attempts to test the June 2017-low ($42.05), and oil prices may continue to track higher as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation takes shape.
  • In turn, a break/close above the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) region raises the risk for a larger reversal, with the next area of interest coming in around $57.40 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.



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