NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK
- US Dollar may rise vs Nordic FX amid trade wars, FOMC minutes, Italian politics
- Critical data out of the Eurozone and US may exacerbate growing recession fears
- Commentary from officials at Jackson Hole symposium could induce risk aversion
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The US Dollar may extend gains vs Nordic FX if growth concerns continue to pressure cycle-sensitive currencies and redirect capital to anti-risk assets. US-China trade tensions appear to be escalating against the backdrop of growing political uncertainty in Italy. Recessionary fears may be exacerbated this week from the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and commentary from officials at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Financial Markets Brace for Deteriorating US-China Trade Relations
Early into Monday’s Asia-Pacific trading hours, US President Donald Trump held a press conference and said he was not ready to make a trade deal with China and that Huawei posed a threat to national security. Furthermore, he also said reaching a trade agreement with Beijing may be more difficult if the violence amid the protests in Hong Kong continues. Greater friction will likely continue to erode market sentiment.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Will the Transcript Simply Re-Emphasize the Market’s Worse Fear?
As outlined in my weekly US Dollar forecast, the Greenback may rise at the expense of equity markets when the FOMC meeting minutes are released. The prospect of cheaper credit has remained a key factor buoying investor sentiment as the fundamental outlook continues to dim. What the minutes will likely show is just a more detailed message from the last meeting by Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is not as dovish as you think.
Jackson Hole Symposium May Pressure Nordic FX if it Exacerbates Global Growth Fears
Fears about the prospect of a recession gained momentum last week after a number of recessionary signals began to sound the alarm. Commentary from officials at the symposium may exacerbate global growth fears and could pressure export-oriented currencies like the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone. However, amid the uncertainty and search for liquidity, the US Dollar may catch a haven bid.
G7 Summit Will be Closely Eyed by Investors Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
Traders will be closely monitoring the G7 Summit this week in Biarritz, France from August 22-24. Given the current state of rising geopolitical tensions around the world, looking for key developments at this conference will be crucial. Some key topics will include Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency, US-China/EU trade and discussing the replacement of IMF chief after Christine Lagarde transitions to her post as ECB president.
ECB Minutes May Spook European Markets Despite Prospect of Stimulus
The publication of the European Central Bank’s meeting minutes is expected to carry dovish undertones after central bank president Mario Draghi said monetary authorities are entertaining QE and rate cuts. However, optimism about the prospect of cheap credit may be overwhelmed by gloomy undertones if the overall message of the transcript is prevailing conditions are so severe that they require stimulative policy measures.
A Chilling Outlook for European Growth
Italian Political Uncertainty May Sap Confidence, Weigh on Nordic FX
Political volatility out of Italy will likely sap confidence in European markets and pressure the sentiment-linked Krone and Krona. The Riksbank has repeatedly cited political risk out of the EU as a key source of uncertainty. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini will attempt to consolidate power and break away from his coalition in order to end cabinet infighting and push forward his market-disrupting fiscal agenda.
Critical Data out of EU, US May Induce Risk Aversion
Traders will also be watching the release of key US and EU economic data. The more notable ones include Eurozone inflation, flash PMIs and consumer confidence, US manufacturing PMIs and new home sales reports. A poor reading from these indicators will likely only strengthen the case for central banks to adopt accommodative monetary policy measures and will likely send a chilling message to Nordic FX markets.
SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter
UK Markets Wait For Supreme Court Ruling, Brexit Update
Sterling (GBP) News, Charts and Analysis – Webinar
- UK Supreme Court ruling due shortly
- UK PM Johnson to meet EU leaders on the sidelines at the United Nations
Q3 2019 GBP Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities
UK asset markets are flat to slightly lower at the start of the week with traders waiting for the UK Supreme Courts ruling on whether PM Johnson’s recent shuttering of Parliament was legal or not. The judgement is expected early this week and will have a direct influence on UK assets one way or another.
This week PM Johnson will meet with European leaders at the United Nations General Assembly meeting to discuss the latest Irish backstop developments. Recent positive commentary has boosted the value of the British Pound until a report this weekend that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker sees a return to a hard border in Ireland pushed GBP lower.
There is a lack of front-line UK economic data this week to influence trading but speaches from BoE governor Mark Carney and other UK central bank officials should be followed closely.
GBPUSD has drifted lower through the session but has not threatened the recent 1.1959 low made earlier this month.
GBPUSD Price Daily Chart (January – September 23, 2019)
The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail traders are 65.0% net-long, a bearish contrarian bias.
EUR/USD Price Slumps as Germany PMI Data Points to Recession
EURUSD Price Charts and Analysis:
- EURUSD may sink further as 1.1000 gives way again.
- Germany is expected to be in recession in Q3.
EURUSD Sinks as German Economic Woes Continue
The German economy is likely to fall into recession in the third-quarter of 2019, ‘as the downturn in manufacturing deepened and service sector growth lost momentum’, according to data provider IHS Markit. The composite index hit its lowest level since October 2012, while the manufacturing numbers are ‘simply awful’ according to the data provider. Germany is expected to enter an official recession in Q3 and may not see any growth this year.
According to Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit, “The manufacturing numbers are simply awful. All the uncertainty around trade wars, the outlook for the car industry and Brexit are paralyzing order books, with September seeing the worst performance from the sector since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. “With job creation across Germany stalling, the domestic-oriented service sector has lost one of its main pillars of growth. A first fall in services new business for over four-and-a-half years provides evidence that demand across Germany is already starting to deteriorate.”
EURUSD continues to point lower and may re-test the two recent low prints around 1.0925 made earlier this month. Below here there is very little in the way of strong support. There is a gap in April 2017 on the weekly chart between 1.0777 and 1.0821 which is likely to be filled in the short-term, before the January 2017 low at 1.0340 comes into play. In the current environment is looks very unlikely that EURUSD will break back above the cluster of lows/highs around 1.1100 and 1.1120.
EURSUD Price Daily Chart (January – September 23, 2019)
The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail traders are 65.0% net-long of EURUSD, a bearish contrarian bias.
US Dollar ASEAN Outlook Bullish, Trade Deal Hopes Fade, PHP at Risk
ASEAN Fundamental Outlook
- US Dollar remained in persistent consolidation mode against ASEAN FX
- Drop in US-China trade deal hopes to fuel USD gains on haven demand
- Philippine Peso also eyeing central bank rate decision, SGD to CPI data
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US Dollar and ASEAN FX Weekly Recap
At first glance, the US Dollar seemed to outperform against its major counterparts when using an equally-weighted index this past week. But the reality is that from a technical standpoint, the Greenback is still in a persistent consolidative mode since the end of July. Its lack of commitment also spread into against some of its ASEAN and Southeast-Asia fiat counterparts.
A couple of notable exclusions this past week were the Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah – see chart below. The former tends to closely trace the Greenback. The IDR saw most of its decline during the front-half of the week, when an attack on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure caused an oil shock that triggered risk aversion. The commodity has since partially subsided as markets turned to the Fed and US-China trade talks.
The US central bank delivered its second interest rate cut, keeping the door open to “extensive cuts” should they be needed. Meanwhile, the Bank of Indonesia delivered a third reduction in benchmark lending rates this year. But the Rupiah was left unchanged as the central bank reiterated efforts to guard their currency. Prior to Friday’s close, ASEAN currencies suffered as Chinese delegation teams canceled trips to US farms.
Check out my Singapore Dollar currency profile to get acquainted with its unique character in markets!
US-China Trade Deal Hopes Once Again Diminish
Once top-tier economic event risk passed last week, it was clear how important US-China trade talks were to financial markets. As mentioned earlier, once reports crossed the wires that Chinese officials canceled trips to farms in Montana and Nebraska, aggressive risk aversion kicked in. The MSCI Emerging Market index covered its upside gap from the onset of Friday’s session as US government bond yields tumbled.
The actions from Chinese officials were in response to comments from US President Donald Trump, who mentioned that he would not accept a partial deal, adding that ending the trade war by 2020 is not his priority. Taking a look at the next chart below, prospects of the two nations agreeing to an outcome has helped to drive capital flowing back into emerging markets since late August.
His lack of interest in wanting an interim deal diminished prospects of an agreement, which can be viewed by the reaction in financial markets on Friday. Talks between the two nations restarted this past week ahead of a high-level meeting anticipated between the economic powerhouses in the middle of October. This is why the US delayed imposing additional $250b in tariffs on China by two weeks to around the same time.
With trade wars still are a persistent threat to global economic health, this bodes ill for risk capital and will likely adversely impact currencies such as the Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit, Singapore Dollar and Indian Rupee. Meanwhile, the highly-liquid US Dollar – still increasing its dominance as the world’s most widely-traded currency – is likely to benefit against them.
ASEAN Economic Event Risk
Focusing on ASEAN regional economic event risk in the week ahead, a top-tier item will be the Philippine central bank interest rate announcement. Much like the easing that we have seen from central banks in the world, the BSP is anticipated to continue the trend. The benchmark lending rate is widely expected to be lowered from 4.25 percent to 4.00 on Thursday.
As such, its surprise factor is diminished, with the central bank governor also hinting at further reductions in reserve requirement ratios. This does mean however that the Philippine Peso will continue to lose its yield advantage (alongside MYR, IDR) which is a long run threat for the currency. Inflation data will also be eyed out of Singapore and Malaysia.
For timely updates on ASEAN and Southeast Asia currencies, make sure to follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX
FX Trading Resources
— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
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