Connect with us


Two Ways to Trade the New Zealand Dollar Tumble



Talking Points:

  • Though the dovish rhetoric in the RBNZ’s hold Thursday wasn’t a surprise, it sparked a sharp drop to multi-year lows
  • The Kiwi’s volatile tumble is an extreme contrast to the pace seen elsewhere in the market
  • Whether you think the New Zealand dollar continues to slide or rebounds, there may be options among NZDJPY, AUDNZD and others

See how retail traders are positioning in NZDUSD intraday using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page.

The Kiwi’s Extraordinary Tumble

It is rare nowadays to see high level volatility and/or productive underlying trends. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) seems to be promoting both. The currency has been under significant pressure for some months owing to its steadily deteriorating monetary policy outlook and a general distaste for the historically-low carry the currency renders against a backdrop of uneven risk appetite. The question therefore is: how novel is this fundamental perspective? Does the market need to account for a troubled outlook that is not presently reflected in the value of the currency or has its slide thus far moved the currency to a fair discount? The fade for the Kiwi is up for debate, but the recent event risk has nevertheless stirred a sharp market response. Yesterday, the RBNZ held its benchmark lending rate, but there was enough in the rhetoric to send the currency tumbling. The outcome (no change in the 1.50 percent benchmark rate) was fully expected. Further, the rhetoric voicing caution with a dovish lean came as no surprise. And yet, the Kiwi Dollar collapsed through Thursday’s session – with clear breaks for many crosses and multi-year lows for many more. The concern over growth and financial stability was more novel than the detachment from lackluster inflation. Systemically, this further undermines an already-deflated carry currency. Yet, how much further it needs to drop in order to account for this lost status is up for debate.

Equally-Weight New Zealand Dollar Index

Evaluating Whether A Provocative Breakdown Can Sustain Trend

There is little doubt that the New Zealand Dollar’s tumble this this past session is remarkable. Not only is the move intense, it has sheered through a host of meaningful technical levels of support among the crosses while there are further a run of multi-year lows being registered. However, a technical break is one thing and the institution of a prevailing trend something else altogether. To establish evaluate the potential follow through for the Kiwi’s ambitious move, we need to evaluate the circumstances for the broader market and New Zealand markets in particular. Most of the momentum to develop behind NZD lately is the product of its own fundamental charge. While the RBNZ’s views for the future were undeniably dovish – particularly relative to the Fed, BoC and BoE – it is not particularly extreme compared to those central banks still pursuing QE. What’s more, the perspective for the Kiwi has chartered an increasingly dovish adjustment for months. Momentum through this channel requires a systemic risk aversion – not yet apparent – or absolute recognition that the Kiwi is losing its carry status far into the future – an abstract concept for trend interests. The broader market conditions are even more troublesome for those seeking out trend. Development of a clear risk (feeding into carry) trend has been lacking for some weeks, but the seasonality pinch to kick in just recently has drained much of the potential for any trend to arise through this or any other currency.

Monetary Policy Evaluation by John Kicklighter

Having an Option for Different Scenarios

You may disagree on the potential for the Kiwi, risk trends or general activity of the market or you may not. Regardless, you should consider options for various outcomes. The currency’s volatility and the proximity of technicals deserves the attention of traders regardless of our ultimate bearing. If the NZD’s tumble post-RBNZ was a one day affair, we should seek out those pairs that are still range bound with clean technicals and provides a convincing counterpart to amplify the rebalance. For this scenario, I’m partial to GBPNZD given clean technicals, but the retreat in Kiwi could readily be offset by any fear to arise for the Pound via Brexit talk. My preferred candidate a check of the dominant trend would be AUDNZD. This pair neutralizes so many competing fundamental themes (risk trends, trade wars, commodities, etc) and drills down to the foundation. It also has a robust technical bearing. Alternatively, if the Kiwi does continue to dive, we should find a counterpart that has great potential to rally. It is on that necessity that I am writing off NZDUSD. The Greenback has few friends in current conditions. Instead, I like NZDCAD, NZDJPY and NZDCHF. The last two represent safe havens which would best serve if risk aversion to kick in. That is feasible but still a lot to ask given our liquidity conditions. NZDCAD meanwhile can exploit the Kiwi’s weaknesses with a counterpart that is distinctly hawkish without the full speculative saturation that the US Dollar represents. We discuss the volatility behind the New Zealand Dollar, the conditions that will channel its potential and the options for different scenarios in this Quick Take video.

Daily Chart of AUDNZDDaily Chart of NZDCAD

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Asian Stocks Hold Up As Markets Look To Fed, US Dollar Gains Too




Asian Stocks Talking Points:

  • Stock markets made modest gains to start a new week
  • Hopes for a dovish Fed seem to be lifting the market
  • However, there are numerous potential worries below the surface

Find out what retail foreign exchange investors make of your favorite currency’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

Asian stocks were cautiously higher on Monday as investors looked with hope to this week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. There is some sense that the US central bank will steer a dovish path into 2019, with perhaps fewer interest rate hikes in prospect than have been seen this year.

Still, there was plenty of caution around too. The Bank of International Settlements said that recent market selloffs may not be an isolated event, with more volatility likely as monetary policy is normalized. The Nikkei 225 managed to gain 0.7% Monday afternoon, with Shanghai and Hong Kong up by 0.1% apiece. The ASX 200 added 1%, with bank stocks leading the way.

The Australian stock benchmark remains under clear pressure on its daily chart but a key short-term support zone between this year’s lass two significant lows continues to hold the bears in check.

ASX 200, Daily Chart

Foreign exchange markets seemed a little gloomier than their equty counterparts, with haven currencies such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen benefitting at the expense of more clearly growth-linked units. The US Dollar index hovered near 19-month highs.

That Dollar strength took a modest toll on gold, while crude oil prices were hit by worries about likely future demand level. These worries come in the wake of weaker than expected economic numbers from both China and the US in recent weeks.

Monday’s remaining economic data schedule is a little sparsely populated. The final eurozone Consumer Price Index for November is coming up though. Then the focus will move across the Atlantic and on to the house building market. Canadian existing home sales figures are due as is the housing market index from the US National Association of Home Builders.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

Source link

Continue Reading


Australian Dollar Bulls Might Get A Little Help From The Fed




FOMC may bring AUD/USD Volatility

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bullish

  • The US Federal Reserve is likely to dominate AUD/USD trade this week
  • It will give its December policy call on Wednesday
  • Any sign of a more relaxed policy view will continue to support the Aussie, despite that currency’s own utter lack of interest rate support

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar’s revival of fortunes against its US cousin goes on, underpinned as it has been since its November beginnings by two key factors.

The first is hope for a trade rapprochement between Washington and Beijing. China is the prime customer of Australia’s vast raw-material export machine, while the US is an indispensable partner for Canberra on security matters. So, Australia has much to gain from a trade thaw between the two global giants. More indeed than any other third country, arguably.

And no doubt trade headlines, if they come, will move the Aussie this week. But their timing is impossible to predict. Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings meanwhile are timed with scrupulous regularity. One is coming up early on Wednesday, Australian time.

That brings us to the second AUD/USD prop. Much of the pair’s recent vigor has been rooted in the thesis that US rates may not rise as much in 2019 as investors had previously thought. This seems reasonable. Economic uncertainties abound, from Brexit to rising US deficits and clear signs of economic slowdown around the world. Moreover, the Fed has already raised rates eight times from their financial crisis lows. A pause for reflection could be easily justified.

So the Australian Dollar market will likely be stuck like all others while it waits to see what the Fed has to say on Thursday.

It’s certainly worth pointing out that the Australian Dollar will lack interest rate support even if the US central bank does chart a more cautious monetary course into 2019. Aussie futures markets now see no increase to the country’s own record-low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate for at least eighteen months ahead.

Still, if the Fed delivers its expected December rate hike but then suggests it’s going to hold off for a while then AUD/USD will probably hold up and may make further gains.

It’s a bullish forecast this week.

AUD/USD has broken downward channel

Chart Source:

Resources Australian Dollar for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

Source link

Continue Reading


Dow Awaits Fed, FTSE Looks to EU No-Deal Data. CAC to Protests




Dow Awaits Fed, FTSE Looks to EU No-Deal Data. CAC to Protests

Equity Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

  • Fed to issue rate decision on Wednesday, followed by a press conference with potential to spur the Dow
  • FTSE will look to Brexit and the BOE decision with a watchful eye on events across the channel
  • CAC concerned with protests and reaction from Brussels on budgetary infractions

Global Geopolitical Concerns Weigh

This past week saw a mixed bag of trading days. A trade war breakthrough on Tuesday spurred markets but most gains were forfeited before the close. The latter half of the week erased any earlier gains as the major US indices sold off Friday. The outlook for global equities remains bearish on a lack of upside potential and persistent threats from Brexit, the Italian budget debate and similar concerns arising in France. One area with upside potential is the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Dow, S&P 500 Await Fed Decision

The Fed is scheduled for their final rate decision Wednesday. At present CME Fed Funds futures have the probability of a hike at 77.5%. With a hike largely priced in, the real price action will arise from Chairman Powell’s discussion with the press afterwards. The Q&A will allow Mr. Powell to expand upon his view for rate hikes in 2019 and given a series of dovish comments in recent weeks, could make the case for a bullish reaction in US equities.

Learn about the differences between the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

CME FedWatch Tool (Chart 1)

CME FedWatch Tool

FTSE 100 Looks to EU’s No-Deal Documents, Bank of England Rate Decision

The FTSE 100 will again await Brexit news. On Wednesday the European Union is scheduled to release documents regarding their preparation for a no-deal Brexit. If their findings are particularly bleak, expect a slump in the FTSE along with the other European indices.

Brexit Impact on GBP: How the Pound Might Move After Parliamentary Vote

The FTSE will also look to the Bank of England. With virtually no chance the bank hikes their interest rate, any reaction will come from commentary on the case for future hikes. Expect this event to be overshadowed by the Brexit news and the Fed.

FTSE 100 Price Chart (2) Daily, Year-to-Date

FTSE 100 Daily Price Chart

CAC 40 Gets Stung

The French equity index will eye the ongoing yellow-vest protests. Already the movement has secured concessions from French President Emmanuel Macron, but the movement’s leaders say the protest will continue into next week. The tax cuts and wage increases offered by President Macron will draw the eye of the European Commission along with the French people.

See the other economic events in the week ahead with our Economic Calendar.

France may now find itself in a position like Italy with an unacceptable budget to GDP ratio and could face the ire of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. The civil unrest and budgetary overspending will undoubtedly weigh on the French index and could spread across the continent as the bloc attempts to reel in its members.

CAC 40 Price Chart (3) Daily, Year-to-Date

CAC 40 Daily Price Chart

Bearish on Equities? Learn some successful bear market trading strategies and techniques.

As with last week, trade wars remain in the picture. There are no scheduled events but talks between US and Chinese officials are ongoing. With that in mind, be wary of trade war developments that could impact your equity positions. There appears to be little upside potential in many equity markets, so the forecast for the week ahead remains bearish.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for

Contact Peter on Twitter at @PeterHanksFX

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecasts:

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Rate Fails to Test Monthly-High Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Prices Swamped by OPEC Cuts, Global Growth Fears, Fed

British Pound Forecast – A Complete Lack of a Cohesive Government Blights Sterling

US Dollar Forecast –US Dollar May Rise as the Fed Checks Slide in 2019 Rate Hike Bets

Gold Forecast – Is Gold Posed to Lose its Luster?

Source link

Continue Reading


Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.