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This market ‘wizard’ just predicted another rally

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From Nick Rokke, Editor, Palm Beach Daily

They call him the Gandalf of Wall Street…

For those who don’t know, Gandalf is the wizard from the Lord of the Rings series whose predictions often turn out right… just like Marko Kolanovic’s do.

Kolanovic is one of the most respected market forecasters out there.

He came to prominence after forecasting the August 2015 flash crash. He was only a couple days away from calling the September bottom. And then he called the top in October before the market pulled back over 12%.

Predictions like those helped make Kolanovic one of JPMorgan’s top strategists.

Here’s why I’m telling you about Kolanovic…

Last week, he made his latest prediction. He told Barron’s that—despite the recent 7%-plus drop in the S&P 500—the market would rebound off strong earnings.

“The market will recover,” he said. “We are less than two weeks from what we think will be the strongest earnings season in recent history.”

This is a bold prediction…

You see, when earnings go up, stock prices typically follow. And we’re about to see the strongest earnings season in the past 20-plus years.

If you’re nearing retirement or just starting to put together your retirement plan, here’s why you should follow Kolanovic and add some equities to your portfolio…

Wall Street Isn’t Playing Its Usual Game

In January, I told you Wall Street liked to play a shady “bait-and-switch” game with investors.

The game allows for analysts to make higher valuations in the present… but then gives companies an easier target to “beat” their earnings estimates later on.

It works like this: Analysts start the year with a relatively high earnings estimate. But as the year progresses, they slowly lower it.

The adjusted earnings allow companies to clear a lower hurdle.

This “bait-and-switch” game makes it easier for companies to beat expectations… and for their stock prices to pop after earnings are announced.

And it happens a lot… especially when earnings growth isn’t very strong.

But this isn’t happening right now…

Beating Expectations

Today, earnings are growing faster than analysts have predicted. Instead of revising estimates downward, they’re revising them upward.

This rarely happens, and never to the extent we’re seeing today.

The chart below shows changes in the earnings per share (EPS) estimates in the first quarter of the year over the past 20 years.

As you can see, analysts have revised EPS estimates upwards only four other times before 2018

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Analysts haven’t revised earnings upwards since 2010 and 2011. Those were pretty good years for the S&P 500, too. The index shot up 12% over that span (despite a 19% drawdown in the middle because of Greek debt contagion fears).

Before that, analysts last revised earnings upward in 2004 and 2005. The S&P 500 was up a total of 12% over those two years as well.

Those numbers are far from exciting… But they are signs the market should continue upward.

Strong Earnings Will Push the Market Higher

Typically, the market follows earnings. That’s why people like Kolanovic aren’t worried about the recent dip.

Now, I know the market is volatile. But a lot of the pain is coming from news that doesn’t impact profits (see yesterday’s Daily).

The economy is still strong. Businesses are thriving. And earnings will trump all other news. You’ll want to own equities going into this earnings season.

Regards,

Nick

Crux note: Equities are poised for a rally… But if you’re looking for additional income outside the stock market, you may want to consider what the folks at Palm Beach call Washington’s “Private Pension Plan”…

The best part is, you don’t need to live near Washington, D.C. And you don’t have to spend hours on the phone, or waiting in line at a government agency.

Learn more right here.


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The greatest obstacle to investing success is… you

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From Richard Smith, Founder, TradeStops:

If you’re like the average investor, you’d say it’s easy to feel overwhelmed at times by confusion in the markets – and sometimes even by fear.

But why should it have to be this way?

Investing is a noble pursuit. Generating wealth for a comfortable retirement means creating the financial freedom to live well in the golden years… while providing support to loved ones… enjoying the finer things in life… and possibly making a real difference in the world.

Those are all good things. The pursuit of good things should not be a stressed-out experience! But for too many investors, that’s exactly what it is. Their market journey is a series of obstacles and worries.

There is bad news and good news here.

First the bad news: Your greatest obstacle to investing success is… you.

And the good news: The solution to overcoming your “greatest obstacle” is within reach.

What does that mean, to say the greatest obstacle to investing success is you?

It means that when it comes to investing successfully, finding great stocks is not the hardest thing. And dealing with volatility is not the hardest thing.

The hardest thing for any investor  and this includes everyone from Warren Buffett on down  is overcoming the natural pitfalls and challenges within their own brains.

Walt Kelly, the artist who drew “Pogo,” had a caption on his most famous cartoon that read: “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”

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That statement could have been tailor-made for investors. Your biggest challenge as an investor will be overcoming your natural behavioral shortfalls and biases  learning to do the right thing and overcoming your built-in bad behaviors in the process.

(And again, this isn’t just “you” specifically. It’s also true for me, and Warren Buffett, and everyone else.)

This really goes back to the essential mission of TradeStops. We want to help as many investors as possible find a path to comfortable retirement. (We’ve helped 25,000 so far, but that number should expand 1,000-fold.)

A key goal of TradeStops is to remove anxiety from the investment process, and in doing so, help investors rediscover the joy of investing as they build long-term wealth.

How do we do this? By combining science, technology, and proven principles of behavior modification.

To get rid of bad investing habits, you can’t conduct brain surgery on yourself (and you wouldn’t want someone else to try).

But you can use software as a tool in the investment decision-making process… which in turn serves as a form of painless behavior modification… which puts you on the path to anxiety-free investment success.

Again, this is what TradeStops is all about: Helping investors overcome their greatest obstacle to investing success… so they can meet their long-term wealth-building goals… and have a positive impact on everyone around them.

Here’s something else funny about the brain: Knowledge makes behavior modification easier.

The better and deeper the brain understands the “why” behind something, the easier it becomes to make a positive behavior change around that thing. And sometimes the “why” is even more important than the rules.

The importance of the “why” was once vividly demonstrated by Ed Seykota, a famous trend follower who made countless millions in the commodity futures markets.

Seykota was one of the earliest adopters of mechanical trend-following techniques. In the 1970s he was a pioneer in the use of exponential moving average crossover systems. (They were so new and exotic at the time, people called them “expedential” moving averages.)

At one point, Seykota decided to teach a classroom course on trend following. For the curious who signed up  remember, trend following was totally new at this point  Seykota spent something like 10 percent of the classroom time explaining the very simple rules of his trend-following system  and the other 90 percent explaining the “why” behind the importance of sticking with the rules!

We’ve realized a similar idea applies to TradeStops software.

No matter how good our software is  and you continue to give us rave reviews, for which we are deeply grateful – it feels like there is always more opportunity to help you, our customers and fellow investors, to get more out of TradeStopsby better understanding the “why” behind certain basic principles.

To that end, we are excited to start something new: An “education series” of editorials, designed to help you become a better investor by sharing the “why” behind some very important concepts.

Our game plan with the education series is to start with the following concepts, exploring each one over a period of weeks or months:

  • Cognitive Biases
  • Probability
  • Investor Psychology

We’re confident the insight you gain from this series can help make you a better investor, even if you aren’t currently using TradeStops. (Though of course, if you haven’t yet experienced the power of TradeStops, we suggest rectifying that immediately!)

Another one of our goals for 2018 is to accelerate the development of TradeSmith University, our ongoing effort to enhance your education as an investor. It goes back to the same set of goals: Giving you more of the “why” behind the principles of investing… so you can make better use of the TradeStops software… in order to reach your wealth-building retirement goals.

It’s an exciting project. We’ve got some great material to draw from, and we’re confident you’ll learn a lot.

If you have any questions, comments, or just something you’ve always wanted to know about cognitive biases, probability, or investor psychology, let us know!

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Richard

Crux note: Richard’s TradeStops philosophy is to cut your losses and let your winners ride… And the results speak for themselves.

You can discover why one satisfied investor called TradeStops his “safety net” right here.


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Two things the World Cup can teach you about investing

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From Jason Bodner, Editor, Palm Beach Trader:

Last week, my phone had a temper tantrum. It just wouldn’t work and was so slow that I couldn’t take it. I took it to the phone store to see my upgrade options.

I brought my three sons. While I waited to get a new phone, they watched the World Cup game in the store.

I wasn’t paying attention, but my seven-year-old Liam proudly proclaimed that Belgium was playing Japan.

This was big deal. (And in a moment, I’ll tell you how it all relates to investing.)

You see, my wife was born and raised in a small city in Belgium. My kids all have dual citizenship. I’m the only one in the family who has just a U.S. passport.

When we left the store, the score was 0-0 at halftime. We were still confident our team would win. There was talk of how Belgium could go all the way. We seemed a sure bet against Japan. (Belgium lost to France in the semifinals on Tuesday.)

About 20 minutes later in the car, I asked Sacha, my middle son, to tell me the score…

Belgium was down by two goals and still hadn’t scored. It was quickly turning into one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.

Sacha was bummed, but being an optimist said, “You never know… We can come back. It’s not over yet!”

I saw his face was mixed with disappointment and hope. I replied with a weak moment of adult realism: “I don’t know Sach, it seems doubtful. Sorry dude.”

I felt bad the way a dad does when he’s gotta break bleak reality to his kid.

Five minutes later, he said “Oh yeah, Daddy? Look now!” I nearly crashed the car when I saw on his phone that the score was now 2-2. I was screaming with glee with the windows open. It must have looked strange to anyone standing on the street.

When I got home, we ran into the house to watch the final minutes of the game. Belgium scored an injury-time goal to win 3-2.

My sons and I started jumping around. Belgium turned what would have been the biggest upset in the World Cup into the biggest comeback.

Aside from being a fantastic game, there is a point to this story…

You see, I was ready to throw in the towel on Belgium. Psychologically, I had given up.

There was plenty of time for a comeback – improbable as it was. But my mind had written off that possibility and given in to despair.

Sure enough, I was dead wrong. And that’s the point…

Emotion is the true enemy of investors. It can lead to despair and fear. And that can cause you to make drastically wrong decisions.

If Belgium were a stock, emotion would have told me, “I can’t take it anymore!”

I would have sold at the exact bottom.

It took me a long time to learn how to overcome emotion as an investor. Ultimately, the most important thing I had to master was my own mind.

Like most people, I have a knack for doing the wrong thing at the worst moment when I act based on emotion. That’s why I built a stock investing system to take guesswork and emotion out of it.

Your stock positions will move up and down, day-to-day, and week-to-week. The market itself will get bumpy from time to time. We all know this… Yet we still act on our feelings when it happens.

The key to overcoming emotion is to stay rational – especially when things get bumpy.

There are two ways I do this:

  • Stay patient. I need to remind myself that investing in stocks is a long-term game. I need to stick to my system and not sell out of fear.
  • Stay focused. When I feel overwhelmed by emotion, I find it helpful to take a walk or do something to focus my attention on something other than what’s bothering me. For me, listening to music or walking my dogs calms me down and helps me refocus.

Emotions cause us to react. Logic dictates that we stay disciplined. Patience and focus will get us to where we want to be.

Talk soon,

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Jason

Crux note: In case you missed it…

Palm Beach‘s crypto expert Teeka Tiwari is teaming up with political commentator and radio host Glenn Beck to create a one-off special extended broadcast live from his studio in Dallas: The Great Cryptocurrency Conspiracy of 2018.

Tune in July 19 at 8 p.m. Eastern time to discover the secret behind making money with cryptos like bitcoin – something both Wall Street and Washington would like to keep hidden from you…

Click here to register for this free event.


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Investors of Botox maker Allergan shouldn’t get their hopes up

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After three years of weakness in shares of Allergan, the pharmaceutical giant behind Botox, CNBC’s Jim Cramer has started to wonder when the stock will finally hit bottom.

“The stock has been a terrible performer,” said the “Mad Money” host, whose charitable trust recently sold the stock after weeks of declines. “But even if I’m wary of the fundamentals, it turns out that the technicals may be telling a different story.”

So Cramer recruited technician Tim Collins, his RealMoney.com colleague, to help with the technical analysis and figure out where Allergan might be headed.

And to Collins, the stock’s recovery over the last two months fed into the story its charts were telling.

In his view, “Allergan just needed a little time to iron the wrinkles out, a Botox-like injection to smooth out the path for the bulls to follow,” Cramer said.

“Or, to put it another way, this could be a situation where beauty is in the eye of the beholder,” the “Mad Money” host continued. “And as far as Collins is concerned, the charts are starting to look downright pretty — at the very least, he thinks they’re showing some bullish signs that might eventually result in a non-hideous picture.”

Collins pointed to Allergan’s weekly chart. He noted that while the stock has struggled in the last 12 months, the start of 2018 has brought forth a different pattern: in Cramer’s words, “a wedge formation within a wedge formation.”

This pattern signified that as Allergan’s $140 to $150 floor of support stayed the same, its ceiling of resistance changed. That led shares of Allergan to break out above two separate ceilings of resistance in recent weeks.

“Collins thinks that changes the game,” Cramer said. “From these levels, he believes Allergan has a clear path higher for at least the next 10 points — so we could get to $186 without much difficulty.”

The technician added that only one ceiling of resistance in the mid-$180s is now capping Allergan’s run, meaning that if the stock breaks above that level, it could rally to the $200s.

In addition, Allergan’s moving averages recently flashed a bullish sign. The 10-week moving average crossed above the 20-week moving average, which Collins took as a signal that the stock is ready to run.

But even with Collins’ positive outlook in mind, Cramer still had reservations about Allergan’s long-term prospects.

“I think we need to be skeptical because this is a situation where I think the charts may possibly disagree with the fundamentals,” he warned. “I see some major competitive threats to its main drug, Botox, and I’m concerned that it’s got real risks as we get closer to its major patent expirations.”

The “Mad Money” host pointed to Revance Therapeutics, a challenger to Allergan’s Botox whose CEO he interviewed in April. He also noted that Allergan lost a key patent protection case for its $1.4 billion eye drug, Restasis.

“The stock has been one disappointment after another for years. So I don’t want you to get your hopes up,” the “Mad Money” host warned. “The charts, as interpreted by Tim Collins, suggest that Allergan may be ready to roar here. I think the fundamentals tell you to be a little bit skeptical. To me, they’re saying you need to be careful with this kind of challenged pharmaceutical company, but I accept that Allergan’s stock was overly punished and can continue to rally in the absence of any new negatives.”

Allergan’s stock settled at $175.95 a share on Tuesday, down 0.5 percent.



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