Fundamental Forecast for JPY: Neutral
– If you’re looking for long-term analysis on the Yen, check out our Quarterly Forecast for the currency.
Want to see how other traders are approaching USD/JPY? Check out our IG Client Sentiment indicator.
USD/JPY With a Second Consecutive Weekly Doji
It was another mixed week for the Japanese Yen, as the currency put in another indecision formation on the weekly chart of USD/JPY. This marks the second consecutive week of indecisive price action, and this happened even as a return of risk tolerance crept back into global markets, with both the Dow and S&P 500 setting fresh two-month highs while the Nikkei further recovered from the May sell-off.
USD/JPY Weekly Chart: Two Consecutive Weeks of Indecision
Chart prepared by James Stanley
The big item this week out of Japan was the final read of Q1 GDP, which had previously indicated an annualized contraction of -.4%. GDP growth for last quarter was revised down to an annualized -.6%, and this is perhaps even more worrisome than initially thought as this contraction ended two consecutive years of GDP growth for Japan. The primary drag appeared to emanate from domestic consumption, and this comes from a continued lag in wage growth. Capital investment continues to grow, albeit at a moderate pace, and hopes are high that economic growth will resume after the Q1 pullback. While a match of last year’s 1.7% GDP growth might be a bit too optimistic, the prospect of strength returning to US and EU markets could help the Japanese economy get back on an upward trajectory.
The crux point for Japan continues to be inflation, which further fell in April after the earlier-year spike.
Japan Monthly CPI Growth Falls Back-Below 1% in April
Chart prepared by James Stanley
The BoJ is On Deck
Next week brings a Bank of Japan meeting on Friday morning, and this takes place after rate decisions in the US and Europe. In the US, the wide thought is that we’ll see another interest rate hike on Wednesday, marking the second such move this year out of the Federal Reserve. The day after brings an ECB rate decision and, of recent, the growing thought is that we’ll hear the bank begin to talk about how they might plan to start tapering their QE purchases. Each of these rate decisions have the potential to be noteworthy, and the Japanese Yen could be swung in either direction on the basis of risk on/off forces that are derived from each of those respective meetings.
BoJ Inflation Forecasts – Will They Cut in July?
Cutting inflation forecasts has become a rather usual occurrence at the Bank of Japan, and a circulating report on Friday morning indicated that this may be in the cards yet again for the BoJ when their next outlook report is due at the end of July. This happened in April when the bank abandoned the target date for returning inflation to 2%, and they also cut the inflation forecast for 2018 to 1.3% from a prior 1.4%. Expectations for 2019 and 2020 remain at 1.8%, but this may be cut at the bank’s July rate decision along with another nudge-lower to 2018 expectations.
Forecast For Next Week
The forecast for the Japanese Yen will remain at neutral for next week. While the backdrop for continued Yen-weakness appears to be starting to line up, the currency remains vulnerable to risk aversion themes, particularly as we approach what could be a pensive European Central Bank rate decision.
To read more:
Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
DXY Index Pacing for Gains Everyday this Week
– After a reprieve yesterday, US-China trade war concerns are materializing again after the latest Chinese trade balance report showed that its surplus with the US widened; USD/CNH was back near its highest close of 2018.
– US President Trump’s comments on the state of Brexit have rekindled concerns about the viability of the Theresa May government; GBP/USD is at its lowest level since July 3.
– Sentiment for the US Dollar continues to suggest a neutral outlook after recent price developments.
For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis, and to view DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.
The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is pacing to gain everyday this week and due to post its first string of five consecutive up days since May 14 to 18. With trade concerns have been seemingly ebbing and flowing every day in recent memory, attention remains focused on any new developments on the US-China trade war front.
The offshore Chinese Yuan is weakening once again as market participants are divining the next move’s in the US-China trade war based on recent trade data. While some of the growth figures from the world’s second largest economy have been less than impressive recently, what has stood out is the fact that China’s trade surplus with the United States just grew to a new record surplus.
Given that US President Trump has turned his attention to countries that enjoy trade surpluses with the United States – Canada, China, Germany, Japan, among others – it would be logical to suggest the latest Chinese trade figures will not help ease tensions any further. Instead, it seems likely now that US President Trump will push harder for the new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, even if China is trying to back away from the ‘tit-for-tat’ type of negotiations.
Elsewhere, the British Pound is suffering as US President Trump and UK Prime Minister May convene in London. Ahead of the US president’s arrival, a wide-ranging interview was published in The Sun that was nothing short of an exocriating critique of how Brexit has gone under the current UK government’s watch.
Saying that a UK-US trade deal would be off – one of the reasons Leavers said would help soften the blow of a Brexit – US President Trump may have just poured fuel onto the fire of whether or not the May government will last following the wave of resignations last week. While still unlikely, a collapse of the May government ahead of the August Bank of England meeting could prove to provoke another hold in rates, setting the Sterling up for disappoint down the road.
DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (July 2017 to July 2018)
Overall, as has been the case throughout the week, the US Dollar’s (via DXY Index) technical posture continues to improve, but isn’t fully bullish on a momentum basis just yet. Price continues to hold above the daily 8-, 13-, 21-EMA envelop in sequential order as the DXY Index has now moved up to its highest level since July 2.
Daily MACD and Slow Stochastics both remain in bullish territory and are on the cusp of issuing ‘buy’ signals, suggesting that a return to the recent highs is possible. A move through the June 21 bearish daily key reversal and June 27 to 29 evening doji star candle cluster highs at 95.53 is necessary to truly reinvigorate US Dollar bulls.
FX TRADING RESOURCES
Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
US Earning Season Begins, GBP Slides on Trump
Check out the brand new DailyFX trading forecasts for Q3
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – GBP FALLS AS TRUMP CRITISES PM MAYS BREXIT PLAN
At the last earning season, US corporate results had reached its best level in over 7 years with earnings growth of 24.8% and revenue gain of 8.7%. This trend is set to continue for this earning season with S&P 500 earnings growth expected to be above 20% again, given the backdrop of strong economic growth in the US and a boost from the Trump administrations tax overhaul continuing to support US corporate names and boost confidence. As such, if indeed US corporate results exceed expectations this could provide a nice distraction for equity traders and continue to buoy major equity markets.
GBP: The Pound had taken a hit after more negative headlines surrounding PM May’s Brexit strategy in which reports noted that President Trump had warned PM May that a soft Brexit proposal will kill prospects of a trade deal between the US and UK. This subsequently, pushed GBPUSD back towards 1.31 after losses had been exacerbated after a breach through 1.3175. Elsewhere, comments from the usually dovish BoE member Cunliffe had provided support for the Pound, having delivered a speech that was somewhat leaning on the hawkish side, subsequently boosting hopes that the BoE will deliver a rate hike next month.
USD: The Dollar index is moving back towards familiar technical resistance, suggesting that further gains could be limited with notable resistance potentially capping price action yet again. Focus continues to remain on the latest developments on US-China trade spat, which has quietened down since Tuesday.
NZD: The Kiwi is partially weaker on the higher greenback, edged even more so cautiously lower when local business manufacturing PMI underwhelmed. In New Zealand, that reading fell to 52.8 in June from 54.4 in May. That was the weakest reading since December 2017, making it a new 2018 low.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, July 13, 2018 – North American Releases
DailyWebinar Calendar: Friday, July 13, 2018
IG Client Sentiment: GBPUSD Chart of the Day
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 70.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.38 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 20 when GBPUSD traded near 1.40897; price has moved 6.7% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jul 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.32203. The number of traders net-long is 3.4% higher than yesterday and 2.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.1% lower than yesterday and 4.2% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “DXY Index Pacing for Gains Everyday this Week” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
- “USD Technical Analysis: DXY at Familiar Resistance Yet Again, will it Hold?” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
- “Charts for Next Week: EUR/USD, Euro-crosses, USD/JPY, Gold Price & More”by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Trade War Risk to be Offset by US Q2 Earning Season”by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
- “GBPUSD Update: Sterling Hammered by Trump on Brexit” by Nick Cawley
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
To contact Justin, email him at Justin.email@example.com
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
Fed Testimony, China GDP and Earnings Compete with Trade Wars
The US dollar should be powering ahead based purely on economic fundamentals but the over-arching threat of global trade wars is reining in the greenback’s performance.
The overhang of Brexit continues to provide an uncertain outlook for the Pound. However, strong UK data could potentially see GBP post marginal gains.
The Canadian Dollar was unable to capitalize on a hawkish BoC amidst trade war concerns. Ahead, the US might impose auto import tariffs and local CPI could miss, undermining CAD.
The Humphrey-Hawkins testimony may influence the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear before Congress.
Crude oil has avoided the fate of other commodities that have been hit very hard by trade war fears. A massive drawdown in US crude stockpiles may help the argument of Bulls, but by how much remains unclear.
Gold is once again testing critical support ahead of next weeks Fed testimony- it’s make-or-break here. These are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.
The week ahead doesn’t hold much in the way of major market moving events on the calendar, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks out there; the general outlook is indecisive at the moment.
See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.
See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.
Strategies & Ideas3 days ago
Jerry Muller Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Strategies & Ideas7 days ago
Trend Following Mega Fifth Edition with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Latest News6 days ago
Morgan Stanley turns more defensive on stocks, downgrades technology
Latest News3 days ago
Morgan Stanley raises its price target on WWE
Latest News6 days ago
American, JetBlue and Southwest bid for Delta’s former Cuba route
Stocks5 days ago
Investors of Botox maker Allergan shouldn’t get their hopes up
Latest News6 days ago
10 most expensive states to live in 2018
Latest News7 days ago
Buy stocks with rising profit margins due to commodity inflation