NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK
- Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone at risk from higher-than-usual volatility
- Growth-sensitive event risk out of Europe, China, US to impact NOK, SEK
- Nordic data docket: Sweden unemployment rate and Norway trade balance
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The first week of April had a hefty data docket for the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone. Traders were eyeing what were potentially global market-moving event risk. The ECB announced its rate decision, the FOMC released the March meeting minutes and an extension to the Brexit deadline was granted. Looking ahead, NOK and SEK may yet have another potentially tumultuous week driven primarily by external-event risk.
EUROPEAN-BASED EVENT RISK:
In Europe, several key growth indicators and announcements will be released from core Eurozone economies. Germany will be releasing its Zew Survey – a measure used to gauge sentiment – which will be particularly important to monitor given the region-wide slowdown. This follows a presentation by Germany’s Finance Minister on the latest economic forecasts.
In Italy, the lower house will be debating on the government’s most recent economic growth forecasts. Last week, the report showed a dismal outlook for the Italian economy in 2019 along with an update that the budget deficit will now be wider than previously agreed. The latter point in particular is a source of concern given the rising risk of another – and potentially more disruptive – Eurozone debt crisis.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron will be delivering a speech which will contain new policy measures as a response to the Yellow Vest protests. Since their start last year, it has severely impacted France’s economic performance and undercut the President’s ratings. The new policies may rattle the Euro and regional bond markets because of the potentially dangerous fiscal example it may set for other Eurozone governments.
This comes as the continent may now be re-entering another trade war with the US, putting further pressure on the already-battered economy. ECB President Mario Draghi reinforced the negative growth outlook at the last two meetings, signaling – along with the IMF – that the downside risks appear to be greater. Political risks are also rising as the European Parliamentary elections approach.
In Sweden, Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden expressed concern on Friday over Germany’s lackluster performance. This in large part has to do with Germany’s status as the “steam engine of Europe”. Why this is of concern to Swedish policymakers is because the Scandinavian country’s economic performance is closely linked to European demand.
US-BASED EVENT RISK
A slew of key US economic indicators will be released which traders will be likely be monitoring closely because of the potential impact it may have on Fed monetary policy. Below are some key indicators to watch out for:
Tuesday – Industrial Production
Wednesday – Trade Balance, MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed Publishes Beige Book
Thursday – Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims
For a more extensive list, check out DailyFX’s economic calendar!
Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi will also be visiting the White House from April 15-18. The two powers will discus trade agreements in an effort to avert another trade conflict on a third front as US economic performance wanes. On Friday, the Easter holiday will begin and may cause additional volatility due to thinner liquidity.
NORWAY, SWEDEN EVENT RISK
In the Nordics, the economic docket remains relatively light, which could mean NOK and SEK traders will likely be keeping their attention more on external risks. On Thursday, Sweden will be releasing its unemployment rate. While broadly the indicator has been falling, there was a spike in November from 5.50 to 6.00 percent. The Swedish Krona promptly fell and cooled rate hike bets from the Riksbank.
In Norway, the data docket is very light with trade balance data due later today. For this reason, NOK’s price movement will be especially watchful for external event risk. The Krone last week was given a boost following better-than-expected CPI data. This was in large part due to the strong recovery in crude oil prices in 2019, although the Norwegian economy and CPI may be at risk if global and European demand wanes.
SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter
Brexit Newsflow and Political Manoeuvres
Sterling (GBP) Price Fundamental Forecast:Neutral
Q3 2019 GBP Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities
No UK Data Next Week Will Leave Sterling Vulnerable to Rumor Risk
Sterling has nudged higher over the week, aided principally by slightly better-than-expected wages, jobs and retail sales data. UK inflation also edged higher and in a world without Brexit, these releases would have the Bank of England discussing whether the current monetary policy was appropriate or if it needed to be tightened. However, as has been the case for many, many months, Brexit is still the driver for Sterling and will remain so until October 31.
Next week there is no market moving hard UK data of note, leaving Sterling at risk of Brexit rumors and news flow. The UK market will also be holiday-thinned next week, leaving GBP potentially exposed to outsized moves in limited liquidity markets.
Brexit news flow continues unabated with the latest batch of headlines suggesting that a cross-party alliance of MPs may come together to form a national unity party if UK PM Boris Johnson loses the expected vote of no-confidence likely to be called in early September. The current Labour Party leader has said that he will act as interim PM is this succeeds ahead of an early general election with the Labour Party promising a second referendum. According to reports, four prominent remainer Conservative MPs are involved in talks with Corbyn.
Sterling technical are covered in a different section but the chart below shows a familiar pattern. Since late-April there have been three occasions when moves lower are met with a quick reversal before the overall bearish pattern takes over. Will the current move prove to be the fourth occasion?
GBPUSD Daily Chart (December 2018 – August 16, 2019)
Crude Oil Price Outlook Bearish, Eyeing January Lows on Long Bets
Crude Oil Technical Forecast: Bearish
- Crude oil prices struggled sustaining upside momentum this past week
- Technical signals on the daily, 4-hour chart hinting at weakness ahead
- IG Client Sentiment offering stronger bearish crude oil contrarian bias
Build confidence in your own Crude Oil trading strategy with the help of our free guide!
Crude Oil Technical Outlook
Crude oil prices struggled to sustain upside momentum this past week as US recession fears plagued risk trends and the sentiment-linked commodity. From a technical standpoint, this falls in line with oil’s dominant downtrend since the middle of April when the commodity fell through rising support from the end of last year.
Looking at the oil daily chart, gains during the front-end of the past 5 trading days were tamed by a falling channel of resistance going back to the middle of July (parallel red lines below). Horizontal resistance also held at 57.38, former highs from February. This left crude oil sitting just above the lower boundary of psychological support which is a range between 54.55 and 55.41.
If descending resistance continues to define near-term price action in the commodity, we may see crude oil extend weakness down the road. Prices may eventually end up at the next critical psychological area between 50.41 and 52.08. This range held as support on multiple occasions such as in June and back in January. Meanwhile, near-term technical signals also hint towards downtrend resumption.
Crude Oil Daily Chart
Crude Oil Chart Created in TradingView
Zooming in on the crude oil 4-hour chart below, rising support from August 7 was taken out this past week. As such, a close under 54.55 may pave the way for continued declines. Otherwise, the upside challenge for the commodity is taking out descending resistance from the middle of July which would expose the July 31 high at 58.79 down the road.
For more updates on crude oil, including fundamental developments, feel free to follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX.
Crude Oil 4-Hour Chart
Crude Oil Chart Created in TradingView
Crude Oil Sentiment Outlook – Bearish
Meanwhile, IG Client Positioning is offering a stronger crude oil bearish contrarian trading bias. Traders are further net long on August 16 than compared to the prior day. To learn more about how you can use this in our own trading strategy, join me every week on Wednesday’s at 00:00 GMT as I uncover what market positioning has to say about the prevailing trends in financial markets.
Crude Oil IG Client Positioning
FX Trading Resources
— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
Into the Jackson Hole Vortex
Traders shouldn’t be surprised if gold prices spend most of the week trading sideways ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Neutral
- Gold prices (as well as other precious metals) continue to outperform in an environment defined by falling real sovereign yields – that is, inflation-adjusted yields remain in negative territory.
- Traders shouldn’t be surprised if gold prices spend most of the week trading sideways ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
- The IG Client Sentiment Index shows that gold prices in USD-terms (XAUUSD) may give back some of their recent gains in the days ahead.
See our long-term forecasts for Gold and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.
Gold Prices Week in Review
Gold prices, no matter how you measure them, had another good week. Not one major currency gained ground against gold, with gold prices in EUR-terms (XAUEUR) leading the way higher with a 2.11% rally. Now, gold prices in EUR-terms (XAUEUR) are quickly approaching the all-time high established in October 2016; for many of the gold-crosses, fresh all-time highs have already been achieved (gold prices in AUD-terms (XAUAUD), gold prices in GBP-terms (XAUGBP), and gold prices in NZD-terms (XAUNZD) come to mind).
But the central focus of most market participants is gold prices in USD-terms (XAUUSD), and that too produced another strong week, adding 1.11%. Gold prices, regardless of the currency basis, have been on a strong run higher in recent weeks in part to the global monetary response to the US-China trade war; we’ll get clarification on the state of global easing this week as central bankers from around the world descend on Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium.
Global Trade War Concerns Keep Gold Prices Elevated
Despite improved trading conditions for global equity markets in recent weeks, not much has changed in a positive manner along the US-led trade war front. Sure, there is a détente in the US-China trade war after the US tariffs at a clip of 10% on $300 billion of imported Chinese goods were pushed back from September 1 to December 15.
Yet there is a strong argument to be made with central banks unveiling more accommodative, dovish policy in recent weeks – a trend that is expected to continue – the fundamental backdrop for gold prices remains bullish in the long-term horizon. Falling sovereign bond yields (particularly German Bunds, UK Gilts, and US Treasuries since the start of May) continue to drop lower, and as a result inflation-adjusted yields remain in negative territory – good news for precious metals.
Volatility Tamped Down Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
The Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this coming week should keep volatility tamped down in the days ahead. Traders typically don’t like to stake out significant positions ahead of the Fed’s annual summit; indeed, at the end of August, many trading desks have been left absent for summer vacation.
Beyond the prospect of an unforeseen development (see: US President Trump’s tweets) in the US-China trade war, the week leading into the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is likely to be a quieter one – even if there are several significant pieces of data set to be released.
Other Top FX Events in Week Ahead
Early in the week, on Tuesday, gold prices in AUD-terms (XAUAUD) will be in focus with the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting minutes. Gold prices in AUD-terms (XAUAUD) are holding near their all-time highs ahead of the minutes. Elsewhere, the commodity currencies will remain in focus with the release of the July Canada inflation report on Wednesday, drawing attention to gold prices in CAD-terms (XAUCAD).
Elsewhere, gold prices in EUR-terms will come into focus with the release of the August Eurozone PMIs, particularly as odds for more easing from the European Central Bank at their September policy meeting have crept higher in recent weeks.
Net-Long Gold Futures Positioning Just Off the Yearly High
Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC’s COT for the week ended August 13, speculators decreased their net-long gold futures positions to 290.1K contracts, down slightly from the 292.6K net-long contracts held in the week prior. The market is still the most net-long since September 2016 despite the slight moderation in bullish positioning.
FX TRADING RESOURCES
Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org
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