Connect with us

Strategies & Ideas

Paul Tough Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Published

on


Paul Tough
Paul Tough

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Is the American system of colleges and universities designed to protect the privileged and leave everyone else behind? Or can a college education today provide real opportunity to young people seeking to improve their station in life?

The Years That Matter Most tells the stories of students trying to find their way, with hope, joy, and frustration, through the application process and into college. Drawing on new research, the book reveals how the landscape of higher education has shifted in recent decades and exposes the hidden truths of how the system works and whom it works for. And it introduces us to the people who really make higher education go: admissions directors trying to balance the class and balance the budget, College Board officials scrambling to defend the SAT in the face of mounting evidence that it favors the wealthy, researchers working to unlock the mysteries of the college-student brain, and educators trying to transform potential dropouts into successful graduates.

With insight, humor, and passion, Paul Tough takes readers on a journey from Ivy League seminar rooms to community college welding shops, from giant public flagship universities to tiny experimental storefront colleges. Whether you are facing your own decision about college or simply care about the American promise of social mobility, The Years That Matter Most will change the way you think—not just about higher education, but about the nation itself.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Years That Matter Most

Mentions & Resources:





Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Strategies & Ideas

Weekly Stock Market Recap – Sep 22nd 2019

Published

on

By


An incredibly non volatile week as indexes did next to nothing until Wednesday afternoon when the Federal Reserve delivered the much expected quarter rate cut.    Markets rallied into the close Wednesday, flat lined yet again Thursday and then a small pullback Friday.

While there was some worry about oil supply early in the week after an attack on Saudi facilities, much of that was washed away by mid week.

As for the central bank:

The Fed announced it would cut the benchmark federal funds rate a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2% Wednesday afternoon, but said in an accompanying statement that “sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2% objective are the most likely outcomes.”

Three members of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting committee voted against Wednesday’s decision, with Kansas City Fed President Ester George and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren voting against a rate cut, while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard preferred to cut rates by 50 basis points, rather than 25.

Friday, markets started higher after reports that Trump was exempting hundreds of Chinese products from tariffs.  But then some Chinese officials who were set to visit Montana of all places cancelled.  And markets fell on that.  Yes I am serious.

Economic news was not market moving.

The S&P 500 fell 0.5% for the week.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 …via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead..

Not to get all wonky but for those interested there has been some dislocation in the “overnight funding market” – and the Fed has had come to the rescue multiple days in the past week.  It’s something that could or could not be interested when we look back 6 months from now.    If you want to go down the rabbit hole, here is a nice little story on the situation.  Otherwise take the blue pill and nothing happened in the past week – it’s all good!

Other than that the normal normal – the bulls will cry out (demand!) the Fed cuts rate at the October meeting.  The bulls will say the China-US trade deal is happening any second now (as it has been for a year) and the bears will say nope not so much.   We are a week away from the interesting economic data, and the start of earnings season in October.

Index charts:

Short term: the S&P 500 is still battling old highs.  The NASDAQ is a bit weaker.

The Russell 2000 remains in its very long term range (in yellow) – the trendline connecting recent highs remains a constraint.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator remains positive but is close to the 0 level.

Long term: decent conditions.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Tuesday, Corning (GLW) tumbled 6.1% after the glass and ceramics manufacturer reduced its outlook for the full-year 2019.

Fedex (FDX) tumbled 12.9% Wednesday after the transport company missed profit expectations and cut its outlook, citing “increasing trade tensions,” and global economic sluggishness.

Thursday, software company Ping Identity (PING) popped nearly one-third on Thursday after its initial public offering, giving the company a valuation of more than $1 billion.

McDermott (MDR) slid 24% amid heavy trading Thursday, amid fears that the provider of engineering and construction services to the energy industry may be considering a bankruptcy after reports that it hired a turnaround consultant. The company denied that rumor.  Then on Friday morning the company soared 68% before settling at a 23% gain, after the energy-services company said it was exploring a sale of its Lummus Technology business, which has been valued at $2.5 billion.

Netflix (NFLX)  fell 5.9% Friday, putting it on track for its third consecutive loss, after falling 2.4% and 1.7% Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. CEO Reed Hastings warned investors at a conference Friday that “While we’ve been competing with many people in the last decade, it’s a whole new world starting in November . . . It’ll be tough competition.”

Roku (ROKU) slid 19.2% Friday after a research analyst distributed a note asking if the streaming-device maker was “broken.” That follows a string of bad headlines for the company, and brings its two-week decline to over one-third of its September 6 record high.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



Source link

Continue Reading

Strategies & Ideas

Paul Gulino Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Published

on

By


Paul Gulino
Paul Gulino

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Paul Gulino believes in Hitchcock’s adage that “films are made on paper.” Although students may obsess about a film’s look, all of the visual elements, he says, function to enhance the story. And that, ultimately, comes from the mind of the screenwriter.

In spite of the fact that there seems to be a screenwriter behind every corner (in California, at least), screenwriting is something of a lost art, Gulino maintains, having seen hundreds of flat screenplays as a story analyst for Showtime Entertainment.

Honing his own skills through writing for the theater and practicing the craft as taught by Frank Daniel and Milos Forman, Gulino secured an agent with William Morris on the basis of his thesis script. With that “real world” confirmation in hand, Gulino went on to write and see produced features, plays and comedy sketches.

Screenwriting, he says, isn’t a craft you can learn from a book. “The best way is to learn from someone who knows the craft, so you can see how theories can be applied to your own work.” There must be something to that. Or at least it’s worked for screenwriter Paul Gulino.

Paul and Michael go on the film-making journey!

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Screenwriting
  • Screenwriting Theory
  • The Science of Screenwriting

Mentions & Resources:





Source link

Continue Reading

Strategies & Ideas

Weekly Stock Market Recap – Sep 15th 2019

Published

on

By


A decent week here as the S&P 500 stopped just short of record highs; almost all the action was on Wednesday.  Quantitative easing is back on again in Europe and easy money traders across the globe rejoice.

The European Central Bank delved deep into its tool box on Thursday, cutting its deposit interest rate further into negative territory, launching a new round of monthly bond purchases and taking other steps to stimulate a flagging eurozone economy.  The ECB said it would begin buying 20 billion euros a month worth of securities beginning Nov. 1.

“Today’s decisions have anchored and enshrined the Draghi legacy in future ECB decisions. ‘Whatever it takes’ has just been extended by ‘as long as it takes,’ said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, referring to Draghi’s famous 2012 pronouncement at the height of the eurozone debt crisis that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro.

Some vague nation of trade talks resuming between China and the U.S. in October appeased many as did some blinking on both sides.

China has reportedly offered to buy more American agricultural products in exchange for a delay in upcoming tariffs and the easing of a ban against doing business with Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies, according to the South China Morning Post.

Retail sales grew faster than expected in August, up 0.4%, and were up 4.1% year-on-year, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday. The rise was driven entirely by purchases of new cars and trucks though, as retail sales ex-autos were flat.

“This morning’s number was above expectations but more importantly it’s the sixth straight month of positive growth for retail sales which is a really encouraging,” wrote Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial in an email. “With holiday spending on the horizon and inflation at bay, we could continue to see momentum in the retail sector. A healthy consumer can help inject some energy into other sectors of the economy.”

“It’s been good news all around for the markets this week. You have thawing of trade tensions. You have more central bank easing, and you have Goldilocks economic data. Investors are thrilled…and that’s why you have markets just fractionally below all-time highs,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

Interesting spike in Treasury yields last this past week; this was the largest weekly move since 2013!

“The bond market may have been a bit overbought on the long-end last month, but this sudden shift into optimism on the prospect of a trade deal getting struck and the ability of the Fed to create a steeper curve — I don’t think that’s sustainable. It’s got to take much better data for long-end Treasury yields to break out of this range,” said Karissa McDonough, chief fixed income strategist at People’s United Advisors.

… also this is an interesting sector to see a rally in.  Part of that could be rotation as momentum stocks seem to be on the outs with traders right now.

For the week, the S&P 500 added 1% and the NASDAQ advanced 0.9%.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 …not via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead..

All that will matter to markets is the rate cut coming this week!

“The question is will the Fed signal a willingness to keep going with rate cuts, or will they suggest this mid-cycle adjustment is nearing its end. My view is they’re not going to back themselves into a corner, and they’re going to give themselves plenty of room to cut again at some point,” Arone said. “That’s going to be the biggest risk right now. The markets are pricing in a number of rate cuts in the next few quarters and will the Fed deliver on that…That will be a friction point.”

And again… and again… and again.  Would not be surprised to see the U.S. quantitative easing in 18 months if the market dares to drop 15% one of these days!

Index charts:

Short term: the S&P 500 rallied to right below it’s old highs.

The Russell 2000 had a huge Wednesday but was stopped at week highs by this resistance line created by connecting the highs of May and August.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator was positive all week, so we seem to be in a good place in the near term!

Long term: decent conditions.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Monday, both Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) rallied by more than 43%, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Fox Business that an agreement between the Treasury and the Federal Housing Finance Agency soon ends the Fannie and Freddie profit sweep. Mnuchin said the deal would allow the government-sponsored enterprises to begin retaining earnings.

Wendy’s (WEN) fell 10.2% Tuesday after announcing a $20 million plan to serve breakfast nationwide from 2020.  The fast-food chain said it will update its 2019 guidance to take the one-time investment into account though “all other elements of the company’s 2019 outlook remain unchanged.”  Wendy’s expects 2019 adjusted earnings per share to be down 3.5% to 6.5%.

SmileDirectClub (SDC) tumbled nearly 28% in its debut at as public company Thursday. The company, which sells clear teeth aligners, finished at $16.67 after pricing its initial public offering Wednesday afternoon at $23 apiece.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.