Connect with us

Strategies & Ideas

One of the Omaha Guys Lays It Out with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Published

on


Charlie Munger
Charlie Munger

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Michael loves finding “golden eggs.” Today he shares a presentation from Charlie Munger, the 94-years young billionaire business partner of Warren Buffet. While Michael my not share the same style of trading as Munger, he loves the world view and psychology behind how Munger thinks.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Knowing the edge of your own competency
  • Humility
  • Integrating disciplines
  • Occam’s razor
  • Academia in America
  • Diversification
  • Capitalism

Mentions & Resources:





Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Strategies & Ideas

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Published

on

By


China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

Trump also called the most recent news “a little squabble”.

On the economic front, retail sales came in below par Wednesday.

Retail sales figures for April showed that U.S. retailers are seeing decelerating purchases for a second time in three months, declining 0.2% last month, compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase. Excluding autos, retail sales were flat for the month, versus expectations for 0.7% growth.

“The 0.2% [monthly] decline in retail sales in April was weaker than the consensus expectation of a small gain and supports our view that GDP growth is set to slow in the second quarter,” wrote Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the NASDAQ 1.3%.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Interesting data point:

Trading in fed-fund futures reflect a 74.1% chance of a rate cut this year, with a 32.1% probability of two or more rate cuts by end of 2019, according to CME Group. That is a sharp reversal from just two weeks ago, when the market gave a more than 50% chance that the Fed would hold steady through the remainder of the year.

As a “trade deal has become much less likely [in the near term], what the bond market sees as increasingly likely is the Fed easing policy, a net benefit to stocks,” Gary Pzegeo, head of fixed income at CIBC U.S. Private Wealth Management, said in an interview with MarketWatch.

Wednesday, the Fed will release minutes from its meeting that ended May 1.  A few major earnings reports are on the docket, mostly from retailers.

Index charts:

Short term: Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ might have double tops in which would be bearish.  That would be erased by the index powering through those highs.

The Russell 2000 has been stuck in a range since February.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator has been in the red for a few weeks now – that raises caution.

Long term: the S&P 500 actually bounced nicely off this trend lines that connects the lows of 2017 and 2018.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Beyond Meat (BYND) continues to impress post IPO.

Thursday, Cisco Systems (CSCO) rallied 6.7% after the networking- and telecom-equipment company reported quarterly results that topped Wall Street forecasts and delivered an upbeat revenue forecast.

Also Thursday, Dillard’s (DDS) slumped 10.5% following an earnings release that showed the department-store chain missing revenue projections for the first quarter, while same-store sales were flat.

Friday, Pininterest (PINS) sunk 14% after the social media company announced first-quarter losses of $41.4 million, which were three times as large as analysts had expected.

Deere (DE) fell 7.7% after the agricultural, construction and turf care equipment maker reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that missed expectations and provided a downbeat outlook.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



Source link

Continue Reading

Strategies & Ideas

Thales Teixeria Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Published

on

By


Thales Teixeria
Thales Teixeria

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Based on eight years of research visiting dozens of startups, tech companies and incumbents, Harvard Business School professor Thales Teixeira shows how and why consumer industries are disrupted, and what established companies can do about it—while highlighting the specific strategies potential startups use to gain a competitive edge.

There is a pattern to digital disruption in an industry, whether the disruptor is Uber, Airbnb, Dollar Shave Club, Pillpack or one of countless other startups that have stolen large portions of market share from industry leaders, often in a matter of a few years.

As Teixeira makes clear, the nature of competition has fundamentally changed. Using innovative new business models, startups are stealing customers by breaking the links in how consumers discover, buy and use products and services. By decoupling the customer value chain, these startups, instead of taking on the Unilevers and Nikes, BMW’s and Sephoras of the world head on, peel away a piece of the consumer purchasing process. Birchbox offered women a new way to sample beauty products from a variety of companies from the convenience of their homes, without having to visit a store. Turo doesn’t compete with GM. Instead, it offers people the benefit of driving without having to own a car themselves.

Illustrated with vivid, indepth and exclusive accounts of both startups, and reigning incumbents like Best Buy and Comcast, as they struggle to respond, Unlocking the Customer Value Chain is an essential guide to demystifying how digital disruption takes place – and what companies can do to defend themselves.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Unlocking the Customer Value Chain: How Decoupling Drives Consumer Disruption

Mentions & Resources:



Source link

Continue Reading

Strategies & Ideas

Weekly Market Recap May 12, 2019

Published

on

By


Trade deal worries between China and the U.S. dominated the headlines all week.   A large gap down Monday morning due to some Trump tweets was mostly fended off as buyers came in hot and heavy.   A significant selloff ensued Tuesday.   The rest of the week ended up choppy but without significant end of day moves up or down.

Trump’s tweet Sunday night was:

For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars….

Then Friday those tariffs were announced as happening although there will be a grace period before they are instituted which market watchers believe is to allow time for the late stages of this trade agreement to continue.

“Goods currently in transit to the U.S. from China aren’t subject to the new 25% tariffs, just the old 10% tariff. That grace period was not included in previous rounds of tariffs and is likely an olive branch of sorts to the Chinese side,” Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report wrote. “Given shipping times, goods sent from China today will take two weeks or so to reach the U.S., so if a trade deal is stuck in that time frame, the pain of the 25% tariffs will never be felt.”

It was a poor week for the Chinese market.

Uber (UBER) IPO’d Friday and fell below the initial IPO price of $45.

No major economic news this week.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2% and the NASDAQ 3% – that broke a 6 week winning streak for the NASDAQ.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

We are through the bulk of earnings season but still some heavy hitters such as Walmart (WMT) are due soon.

Wednesday the retail sales report for April will be released, which could give investors a clue as to whether the slump that began in December was a temporary blip or the beginning of a worrisome trend.

Obviously the trade deal will continue to be a central focus.

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500 reversed at fall 2018 highs.  Some may call that a double top which is a negative.  But this market has made fools of everyone bearish for a decade.

The Russell 2000 has been stuck in a range really since February.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator has been in the red for a few weeks now – it finally mattered this week.

Long term: Things are still strong longer term.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Monday, Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) soared 35% to a record high, and the biggest one-day gain in 10 years, after the TV broadcasting company’s deal to buy regional sports networks from Walt Disney.

Tuesday, Mylan (MYL) fell more than 23% Tuesday, after the drugmaker reported a revenue shortfall that offset a profit beat.

Lyft (LYFT) slid 11% Wednesday after the ride-hailing company late Tuesday reported quarterly earnings for the first time since its initial public offering in March. The company reported first-quarter losses that were wider than expected, but revenue that topped expectations.

TripAdvisor (TRIP) sank 11% after the company posted first-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations, but revenue that widely missed forecasts.

Thursday, Etsy (ETSY) sank 11% after the online marketplace reported first-quarter earnings Wednesday evening, with the company reporting profit and sales that grew more slowly that analysts had predicted.

Roku (ROKU) popped 28% Thursday following a Wednesday-evening earnings report that showed the streaming platform company beating earnings expectations for the first quarter, while it forecast second-quarter revenue that also beat estimates.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.