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Indicative Votes Proposed For March 20

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Brexit: latest news and analysis:

  • Members of the Westminster Parliament have published a plan to wrest control of the Brexit process from UK Prime Minister Theresa May.
  • It would force a discussion in Parliament on March 20 of the various Brexit options and is designed to find out whether any of them would win a majority.

New Brexit proposal

In yet another Brexit development, Members of Parliament from both Prime Minister Theresa May’s ruling Conservative Party and Opposition parties have tabled a proposal to find out whether any of the many Brexit options would command a majority in the House.

It would overturn the usual rule that the Government controls what is discussed in Parliament and comes at a time when discussion is centering on whether the UK should ask for an extension of the March 29 Brexit deadline. Parliament is due to vote Thursday on seeking a last-minute delay, which would have to be agreed by all the other 27 EU members.

In a tweet, the BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg wrote that if the cross partyamendment, which would officially put MPs in charge of the Brexit process, is laid down it might be harder fought through the day than the question of delay.

GBPUSD Price Chart, Five-Minute Timeframe (March 14, 2019)

Latest GBPUSD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Sterling Outlook: GBPUSD, EURGBP Price Analysis and Brexit News

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S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

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Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | Trade War Tensions Dictating Price Action
  • DAX | EU/US Trade Dispute is Delayed, Not Resolved

FTSE

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | Trade War Tensions Dictating Price Action

The S&P 500 is on course to drop over 0.5% for the week as investor angst over US/China trade wars continues to weigh on risk appetite, most notably in the US benchmarks. However, while a mid-week bounce has seen losses pared slightly since the escalation with the S&P 500 now down 3% (Prev. -5.4%), the trade sensitive sectors have maintained their losses with the US Semiconductor Index down 10% (Prev. -11%). Consequently, focus will continue to remain trade wars.

SPX

Markets Pricing in Fed Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve have continued to maintain the mantra that they will be on hold for the foreseeable future and that there is little reason to provide a cut. However, bonds markets have continued to price in Fed easing, with money markets fully priced for a rate reduction in December. Alongside this, the 3M/10yr US yield curve has continued to dip into inversion amid the rising trade war tensions. The upcoming week will see commentary from Fed Chair Powell, however, with markets pricing in a dovish Fed, the bar is high for Powell to match those dovish expectations as was evidenced in the post monetary policy decision speech on April 24th, in which the Chair noted that soft inflation was “transitory”.

FED

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

DAX | EU/US Trade Dispute is Delayed, Not Resolved

A firm week for the DAX, which recorded gains of over 1%, among the major factors behind this had stemmed from source reports stating that the Trump Administration were to delay imposing auto-tariffs on EU imports for an additional 6-months (full story), which in turn saw the European auto names surge. The decision to delay could largely be attributed to the fact that US/China tensions have escalated. However, this is merely a delay and not a resolution. Noteworthy calendar events: ECB Draghi & Praet (Thurs), Eurozone PMIs (Thur).

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Jan 2019May 2019)

DAX

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Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

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Euro Weakness to Remain the Theme

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EURUSD Technical Highlights:

  • Euro looks headed towards the April low or worse
  • 4-hr chart has a developing structure to pay attention to

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Euro looks headed towards the April low or worse

To be clear, trading EURUSD lately hasn’t been an easy endeavor as low volatility conditions continue to be a headwind for traders. We’ve seen some movement in other majors (GBPUSD in particular) but not in the most widely traded pair. That will eventually change, but until it does we have to continue to take what is presented to us and be patient with set-ups.

With that said, the general trading bias remains the same as it has for months – lower. Trend and price action continue to be supportive of this bias. A run on the April low at 11109 or worse looks to be in store sometime in the coming sessions, but the path could be a little shaky.

Dialing in a bit closer to the 4-hr time-frame, a channel is becoming visible even if it isn’t perfect, with candlestick wicks clouding the picture. A small bounce from the lower parallel may make for the best scenario, as the lower parallel’s importance is further cemented and a nearby low is created in the process.

A bounce and subsequent breakdown could offer a solid structure (see 4-hr chart) for would-be shorts from both a probability and risk/reward standpoint. Selling right here at support puts one at risk of a bounce with good stop placement difficult to determine.

A bounce that carries the euro beyond 11225 will give pause to sellers and bring into play the area around 12265 (recent highs/trend-lines) and possibly become an even more attractive spot to short. The bottom line is that the Euro looks headed lower, but it may pay to sit tight and wait for a better look before entering new positions. If currently in a short from higher levels, then one could use the aforementioned highs and trend-lines to manage risk accordingly.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning in major markets could signal the next price move.

EURUSD Daily Chart (April low, 11000s could be soon)

EURUSD

EURUSD 4-hr Chart (Channel/Bear-flag)

EURUSD

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Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

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Euro Braces for Volatility Ahead of EU Elections, ECB Minutes

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EURO FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

  • Europe and the Euro brace for European parliamentary elections
  • The ECB and Fed meeting minutes may mean additional volatility
  • European economic data, OECD outlook publication add to risks

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The Euro may be in for its most tumultuous week year-to-date as the Fed and ECB prepare to release their respective meeting minutes right before the EU holds the most consequential European-wide vote in its history. Volatility may be further enhanced after the OECD publishes its latest projections for growth and as key Eurozone economic data is released throughout the week.

On May 21, the multinational organization will publish its economic growth forecasts with expectations that the report will highlight weakness in global demand. The US-China trade war has disrupted financial markets and destabilized global growth prospects. EU-US relations are also not particularly comforting after the two global players waged an economic war against each other with a possible continuation this year.

Euro area economic data will also be released throughout the week. German GDP and Eurozone CPI will likely be the most heavily eyed pieces of data, though their impact may be overshadowed by higher-level event risk. Broadly speaking, economic data out of Europe has been tending to underperform relative to expectations and has forced the ECB to implement new liquidity provisions as a way to boost local growth.

EUR

The following day, the Fed will be releasing its FOMC meeting minutes from the most recent policy meeting. Fed monetary policy has not only impacted the US Dollar but has also roiled global financial markets because of the implication a higher-priced USD has on international economic activity. According to the Bank of International Settlements, 80 percent of all global transactions are conducted in the US Dollar.

And finally, on May 23, Europeans will cast their ballot and express their joy – or more likely, discontent –with the European Union. Preliminary polls are showing eurosceptic parties may gain as much as one-third of all seats in the European parliament. This in itself could have devastating consequences for the Euro and could undermine the stability in European sovereign bond markets.

Spanish, Italian, Greek, Portuguese 10-Year Bond Yields Spike on Italy’s Political Turmoil

EUR

On the same day, the European central bank will be publishing its minutes from the last policy meeting. Market participants are likely expecting dovish undertones as the continent continues to struggle in bringing about sustained growth and inflation. Brexit and the European elections may only add greater political risk and cloud an already-uncertain outlook as monetary authorities attempt to steer in unchartered territory.

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— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

Looking for a technical perspective on the Euro? Check out the Weekly EUR Technical Forecast



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