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How global markets may react if North Korea summit succeeds…or fails

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A successful outcome of U.S. talks with North Korea could give a boost to Chinese stocks and a U.S. exchange-traded fund that tracks them, according to a study looking at financial market reactions to past milestones regarding the rogue nation.

A disappointing outcome could hurt European stocks, the study showed.

President Donald Trump is set to hold a historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore beginning Monday evening EDT. It’s uncertain whether the leaders can agree on issues such as immediate denuclearization and sanctions relief. The meeting itself was temporarily canceled by Trump.

But if the two leaders come closer to a resolution, Chinese stocks are particularly poised to benefit, according to CNBC analysis using Kensho, a quantitative analytics tool used by hedge funds.

The iShares China large-cap ETF (FXI) climbed an average 0.9 percent in the two trading days after talks between leaders of North and South Korea that indicated improved relations. The study looked at 19 instances since Kim assumed power in late 2011.

FXI tracks companies such as Tencent, Bank of China, PetroChina and Air China, a state carrier that said earlier this month it is resuming flights between Beijing and Pyongyang. The majority of North Korea’s trade is with China, which supplies most of the rogue state’s oil.

Other global markets tend to gain after talks between South and North Korea. The iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY), iShares S&P Europe 350 Index ETF (IEV) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) all climbed about half a percent on average, the Kensho study showed.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 rose an average 0.2 percent, according to Kensho. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of fear, drops 3 percent on average.

When worries about North Korea’s nuclear threat escalate, European and emerging market stocks are among the worst performers, according to Kensho.

IEV and EEM each fall half a percent on average in the two days following a successful missile test or a particularly aggressive statement from the Trump administration, according to Kensho. The study looked at 25 such occasions since Kim took power.

South Korean stocks tended to fall about a third of a percent, while the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) declined a quarter of a percent, on average, when tensions around North Korea increase, the Kensho analysis found.

The VIX jumps 5.6 percent on average. The S&P 500 and China’s FXI trade positive roughly 50 percent of the time, no better than a coin flip.



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These stocks historically jump the most during the first earnings season of the year

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There are certain stocks that historically post big gains after reporting fourth-quarter earnings.

Bespoke looked back at the past eight fourth-quarter reporting periods and found stocks that jumped the most on earnings reporting day. It found 15 large caps that rose an average 3.8 percent or more.

Several stocks on the list also had bullish charts, on a technical basis, though many had negative or bearish charts, according to Bespoke. Those that looked bullish were D.R. Horton, Salesforce.com, Broadcom, Hologic and Intuitive Surgical.

Source: Bespoke



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Billionaire Ken Griffin buys the most expensive home ever sold in the US

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Kenneth Griffin, founder and chief executive officer of Citadel LLC

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Kenneth Griffin, founder and chief executive officer of Citadel LLC

Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin closed a deal to buy the most expensive home ever sold in the U.S., paying around $238 million for a New York penthouse overlooking Central Park.

The deal is the largest in Griffin’s recent $700 million, global real estate shopping spree, believed to be the largest ever for a U.S. billionaire. Over the past few years, the founder and CEO of Citadel has purchased the most expensive homes in Chicago, Miami and New York. He has spent more than $200 million to buy land in Palm Beach, Florida for a home he plans to build there. And this week, news broke that he purchased a $122 million property in London, which was the most expensive sale in London in a decade.

A spokeswoman for Citadel couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

The New York purchase, first reported by CNBC in 2015 when it went into contract, covers several floors of the new 79-story condo tower known as 220 Central Park South. The apartment covers four full floors and is around 24,000 square feet with stunning views of Central Park, according to real estate experts. Griffin bought the space raw, which means that even after paying $238 million, Griffin will likely spend millions more to design, build and furnish the home.

The deal eclipses the current record for the most expensive home sold in the U.S. — the $147 million paid by hedge fund manager Barry Rosenstein for an estate in East Hampton, New York in 2014.

With new condo towers, like 220 Central Park South, buyers sign a contract while the building is under construction, and officially close on the deal when the building is finished.



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Jamie Dimon predicted bitcoin’s nosedive, but isn’t celebrating it

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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, speaking at the 2019 WEF in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 23rd, 2019.

Adam Galica | CNBC

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, speaking at the 2019 WEF in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 23rd, 2019.

The bitcoin price bubble has burst but JP Morgan Chase‘s Jamie Dimon isn’t taking a victory lap.

The CEO was among the first and loudest on Wall Street to warn against the cryptocurrency, calling it a “fraud” and warning investors that if they were “stupid enough to buy it” they would “pay the price one day.”

When asked if he took any satisfaction in being right after bitcoin dropped 80 percent, Dimon told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos he “didn’t take any.”

Still, Dimon is advocating for its underlying technology, blockchain. Despite its own level of corporate hype, he said it’s not the perfect fit to disrupt things like equity trades. It’s a better replacement for certain online databases, he said.

“Blockchain is a real technology — it’s just a database we can all access that’s kept up-to-date,” Dimon told CNBC’s Squawk Box.

J.P. Morgan is using the technology, which gets rid of the need for a third party intermediary by creating a permanent, open record of all transactions on a network. Buyers and sellers can interact directly and have their exchange recorded on a what’s known as a “distributed,” or blockchain ledger.

In October 2017, J.P. Morgan Chase announced a blockchain-based system that will “significantly reduce” the number of parties needed to verify global payments, reducing transaction times “from weeks to hours.” Royal Bank of Canada and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group are among the bank’s partners in the project.

Corporate giants Amazon, Facebook, and IBM are among the many others exploring blockchain use cases.

Bitcoin meanwhile has failed to stage a recovery. Since its peak in December 2017, the cryptocurrency has fallen 82 percent, according to data from CoinDesk. It has dropped roughly 75 percent over one year, and was trading near $3,570 on Wednesday.



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