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FX Markets Look to US Retail Sales, UK & Japanese CPI, BOC, & More

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Talking Points:

– The first half of the week features March US Retail Sales, Q1’18 Chinese GDP, March UK CPI, and the Bank of Canada rate decision.

– Thursday and Friday will see Q1’18 New Zealand CPI, the March Australian labor market report, March Japanese CPI, and March Canadian CPI.

Retail trader positioning has little consistency in bias across USD-pairs.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/16 Monday | 12:30 GMT | USD Advance Retail Sales (MAR)

Consumption is the most important part of the US economy, generating nearly 70% of the headline GDP figure. The best monthly insight we have into consumption trends in the US might arguably be the Advance Retail Sales report. In March, according to a Bloomberg News survey, consumption rebounded with the headline Advance Retail Sales due in at +0.4% from -0.1% (m/m). The Retail Sales Control Group, the input used to calculate GDP, is due in at +0.3% from +0.1% (m/m).

FX Markets Look to US Retail Sales, UK & Japanese CPI, BOC, & More

Based on the data received thus far about Q1’18, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for growth at +2%. The next update to the Q1’18 forecast will be released after Monday’s US economic data.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY Index, Gold

Note: the headline retail sales print beat expectations at +0.6% vs +0.4% expected, but the core reading missed at +0.3% vs +0.4% expected (m/m). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was revised lower to +1.9% annualized growth for Q1’18 following the data.

04/18 Wednesday | 08:30 GMT | GBP Consumer Price Index (MAR)

Consensus forecasts, according to Bloomberg News, are calling to see inflation having increased by +0.3% from +0.4% (m/m) and at +2.5% unch (y/y). Likewise, Core CPI is expected to have increased to +2.5% from +2.4% (y/y). Given that inflation will remain at high levels as real disposable income remains under pressure, the Tuesday report should give plenty of room for the BOE to maintain its willingness to raises rates again soon; overnight index swaps are currently pricing in greater than an 85% chance of a 25-bps hike by May. The British Pound should remain supported assuming inflation rates remain elevated..

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

04/18 Wednesday | 14:00 GMT | CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada will leave its main interest rate on hold at 1.50% when it meets this Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. While Canadian economic data has been steady – notably inflation and labor market reports that would point to a more hawkish BOC – the overhand of the NAFTA negotiations has unleashed uncertainty over the near-term horizon. Despite seeing odds near 80% at the beginning of February for another 25-bps rate hike in the first half of 2018, rates markets are now pricing in less than a 30% chance of a rate move by the BOC’s May meeting. The BOC will likely wait until the NAFTA negotiations have concluded before moving on rates again.

Pairs to Watch: CAD/JPY, USD/CAD, Crude Oil

04/19 Thursday | 01:30 GMT | AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (MAR)

Australian employment increased by +17.5K in February, and despite labor market data proving stronger in recent months, focus remains elsewhere for traders. With the unemployment rate due to decline 5.5% from 5.6%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is probably looking for nothing more than signs of stable growth rather than another blowout print to keep their optimism about the labor market intact. Current forecasts call for +20K jobs to have been added last month, in what should amount to another strong labor report overall.

But despite the steadily improving state of the labor market, uneven economic data appears to be a wrinkle in the outlook for the RBA, which continues to note that real wage growth trends aren’t strong enough to provoke a rate hike any time soon. Interest rate expectations (per overnight index swaps) show that no rate move is expected in 2018.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD

04/19 Wednesday | 23:30 GMT | JPY National Consumer Price Index (MAR)

Japanese inflation figures are expected to fall back after several months of pushing higher, due in at +1.1% in March from +1.5% in February (y/y). The previous reading was the fastest rate of price pressures since April 2015 – when Shinzo Abe government enacted the (unpopular) sales tax reform. Accordingly, a retracement in inflation should cool market participants’ speculation over an early termination to the BOJ’s easing policies; the BOJ has recently signaled that the end of the extraordinary easing measures will come around the start of FY2019 – next April.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY

Read more: No Range Break in Sight Yet for EUR/USD

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com.

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.



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Forex

DXY Index Pacing for Gains Everyday this Week

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Talking Points:

– After a reprieve yesterday, US-China trade war concerns are materializing again after the latest Chinese trade balance report showed that its surplus with the US widened; USD/CNH was back near its highest close of 2018.

– US President Trump’s comments on the state of Brexit have rekindled concerns about the viability of the Theresa May government; GBP/USD is at its lowest level since July 3.

Sentiment for the US Dollar continues to suggest a neutral outlook after recent price developments.

For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis, and to view DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is pacing to gain everyday this week and due to post its first string of five consecutive up days since May 14 to 18. With trade concerns have been seemingly ebbing and flowing every day in recent memory, attention remains focused on any new developments on the US-China trade war front.

The offshore Chinese Yuan is weakening once again as market participants are divining the next move’s in the US-China trade war based on recent trade data. While some of the growth figures from the world’s second largest economy have been less than impressive recently, what has stood out is the fact that China’s trade surplus with the United States just grew to a new record surplus.

Given that US President Trump has turned his attention to countries that enjoy trade surpluses with the United States – Canada, China, Germany, Japan, among others – it would be logical to suggest the latest Chinese trade figures will not help ease tensions any further. Instead, it seems likely now that US President Trump will push harder for the new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, even if China is trying to back away from the ‘tit-for-tat’ type of negotiations.

Elsewhere, the British Pound is suffering as US President Trump and UK Prime Minister May convene in London. Ahead of the US president’s arrival, a wide-ranging interview was published in The Sun that was nothing short of an exocriating critique of how Brexit has gone under the current UK government’s watch.

Saying that a UK-US trade deal would be off – one of the reasons Leavers said would help soften the blow of a Brexit – US President Trump may have just poured fuel onto the fire of whether or not the May government will last following the wave of resignations last week. While still unlikely, a collapse of the May government ahead of the August Bank of England meeting could prove to provoke another hold in rates, setting the Sterling up for disappoint down the road.

DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (July 2017 to July 2018)

DXY Index Pacing for Gains Everyday this Week

Overall, as has been the case throughout the week, the US Dollar’s (via DXY Index) technical posture continues to improve, but isn’t fully bullish on a momentum basis just yet. Price continues to hold above the daily 8-, 13-, 21-EMA envelop in sequential order as the DXY Index has now moved up to its highest level since July 2.

Daily MACD and Slow Stochastics both remain in bullish territory and are on the cusp of issuing ‘buy’ signals, suggesting that a return to the recent highs is possible. A move through the June 21 bearish daily key reversal and June 27 to 29 evening doji star candle cluster highs at 95.53 is necessary to truly reinvigorate US Dollar bulls.

Read more: DXY Index Gains Build Further; USD/JPY Nears Yearly High

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX



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US Earning Season Begins, GBP Slides on Trump

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Check out the brand new DailyFX trading forecasts for Q3

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – GBP FALLS AS TRUMP CRITISES PM MAYS BREXIT PLAN

At the last earning season, US corporate results had reached its best level in over 7 years with earnings growth of 24.8% and revenue gain of 8.7%. This trend is set to continue for this earning season with S&P 500 earnings growth expected to be above 20% again, given the backdrop of strong economic growth in the US and a boost from the Trump administrations tax overhaul continuing to support US corporate names and boost confidence. As such, if indeed US corporate results exceed expectations this could provide a nice distraction for equity traders and continue to buoy major equity markets.

GBP: The Pound had taken a hit after more negative headlines surrounding PM May’s Brexit strategy in which reports noted that President Trump had warned PM May that a soft Brexit proposal will kill prospects of a trade deal between the US and UK. This subsequently, pushed GBPUSD back towards 1.31 after losses had been exacerbated after a breach through 1.3175. Elsewhere, comments from the usually dovish BoE member Cunliffe had provided support for the Pound, having delivered a speech that was somewhat leaning on the hawkish side, subsequently boosting hopes that the BoE will deliver a rate hike next month.

USD: The Dollar index is moving back towards familiar technical resistance, suggesting that further gains could be limited with notable resistance potentially capping price action yet again. Focus continues to remain on the latest developments on US-China trade spat, which has quietened down since Tuesday.

NZD: The Kiwi is partially weaker on the higher greenback, edged even more so cautiously lower when local business manufacturing PMI underwhelmed. In New Zealand, that reading fell to 52.8 in June from 54.4 in May. That was the weakest reading since December 2017, making it a new 2018 low.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, July 13, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: US Earning Season Begins, GBP Slides on Trump

DailyWebinar Calendar: Friday, July 13, 2018

US AM Digest: US Earning Season Begins, GBP Slides on Trump

IG Client Sentiment: GBPUSD Chart of the Day

US AM Digest: US Earning Season Begins, GBP Slides on Trump

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 70.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.38 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 20 when GBPUSD traded near 1.40897; price has moved 6.7% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jul 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.32203. The number of traders net-long is 3.4% higher than yesterday and 2.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.1% lower than yesterday and 4.2% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. DXY Index Pacing for Gains Everyday this Weekby Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
  2. USD Technical Analysis: DXY at Familiar Resistance Yet Again, will it Hold?” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  3. Charts for Next Week: EUR/USD, Euro-crosses, USD/JPY, Gold Price & Moreby Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. Trade War Risk to be Offset by US Q2 Earning Seasonby Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  5. GBPUSD Update: Sterling Hammered by Trump on Brexit” by Nick Cawley

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX



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Fed Testimony, China GDP and Earnings Compete with Trade Wars

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US Dollar Forecast – USD: Trade Wars vs Strong Economic Fundamentals – The Battle Continues

The US dollar should be powering ahead based purely on economic fundamentals but the over-arching threat of global trade wars is reining in the greenback’s performance.

British Pound Forecast – GBP: Strong UK Data may Boost GBP, However, Brexit Overhang Remains

The overhang of Brexit continues to provide an uncertain outlook for the Pound. However, strong UK data could potentially see GBP post marginal gains.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Could Be Stuck Between RBA Minutes, Jobs Data

The Australian Dollar ‘s overall backdrop remains pretty bleak for bulls, but AUD/USD seems to have hit durable support and may have suffered enough for the moment.

Canadian Dollar Forecast –CAD Undermined by US Auto Tariff Threat. Hawkish BoC, So What?

The Canadian Dollar was unable to capitalize on a hawkish BoC amidst trade war concerns. Ahead, the US might impose auto import tariffs and local CPI could miss, undermining CAD.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Forecast: Dollar Strength to Persist on Hawkish Fed Testimony

The Humphrey-Hawkins testimony may influence the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear before Congress.

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Sidesteps Trade War Fears, Inventory Drawdowns Continue

Crude oil has avoided the fate of other commodities that have been hit very hard by trade war fears. A massive drawdown in US crude stockpiles may help the argument of Bulls, but by how much remains unclear.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Flirt with Disaster- Key Support in Focus Ahead of Powell

Gold is once again testing critical support ahead of next weeks Fed testimony- it’s make-or-break here. These are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

Equities Forecast –S&P 500, DAX & FTSE – Outlook Shrouded in Uncertainty

The week ahead doesn’t hold much in the way of major market moving events on the calendar, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks out there; the general outlook is indecisive at the moment.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Testimony, China GDP and Earnings Compete with Trade Wars

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.



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