– The first half of the week features March US Retail Sales, Q1’18 Chinese GDP, March UK CPI, and the Bank of Canada rate decision.
– Thursday and Friday will see Q1’18 New Zealand CPI, the March Australian labor market report, March Japanese CPI, and March Canadian CPI.
– Retail trader positioning has little consistency in bias across USD-pairs.
Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.
04/16 Monday | 12:30 GMT | USD Advance Retail Sales (MAR)
Consumption is the most important part of the US economy, generating nearly 70% of the headline GDP figure. The best monthly insight we have into consumption trends in the US might arguably be the Advance Retail Sales report. In March, according to a Bloomberg News survey, consumption rebounded with the headline Advance Retail Sales due in at +0.4% from -0.1% (m/m). The Retail Sales Control Group, the input used to calculate GDP, is due in at +0.3% from +0.1% (m/m).
Based on the data received thus far about Q1’18, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for growth at +2%. The next update to the Q1’18 forecast will be released after Monday’s US economic data.
Note: the headline retail sales print beat expectations at +0.6% vs +0.4% expected, but the core reading missed at +0.3% vs +0.4% expected (m/m). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was revised lower to +1.9% annualized growth for Q1’18 following the data.
04/18 Wednesday | 08:30 GMT | GBP Consumer Price Index (MAR)
Consensus forecasts, according to Bloomberg News, are calling to see inflation having increased by +0.3% from +0.4% (m/m) and at +2.5% unch (y/y). Likewise, Core CPI is expected to have increased to +2.5% from +2.4% (y/y). Given that inflation will remain at high levels as real disposable income remains under pressure, the Tuesday report should give plenty of room for the BOE to maintain its willingness to raises rates again soon; overnight index swaps are currently pricing in greater than an 85% chance of a 25-bps hike by May. The British Pound should remain supported assuming inflation rates remain elevated..
04/18 Wednesday | 14:00 GMT | CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada will leave its main interest rate on hold at 1.50% when it meets this Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. While Canadian economic data has been steady – notably inflation and labor market reports that would point to a more hawkish BOC – the overhand of the NAFTA negotiations has unleashed uncertainty over the near-term horizon. Despite seeing odds near 80% at the beginning of February for another 25-bps rate hike in the first half of 2018, rates markets are now pricing in less than a 30% chance of a rate move by the BOC’s May meeting. The BOC will likely wait until the NAFTA negotiations have concluded before moving on rates again.
04/19 Thursday | 01:30 GMT | AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (MAR)
Australian employment increased by +17.5K in February, and despite labor market data proving stronger in recent months, focus remains elsewhere for traders. With the unemployment rate due to decline 5.5% from 5.6%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is probably looking for nothing more than signs of stable growth rather than another blowout print to keep their optimism about the labor market intact. Current forecasts call for +20K jobs to have been added last month, in what should amount to another strong labor report overall.
But despite the steadily improving state of the labor market, uneven economic data appears to be a wrinkle in the outlook for the RBA, which continues to note that real wage growth trends aren’t strong enough to provoke a rate hike any time soon. Interest rate expectations (per overnight index swaps) show that no rate move is expected in 2018.
04/19 Wednesday | 23:30 GMT | JPY National Consumer Price Index (MAR)
Japanese inflation figures are expected to fall back after several months of pushing higher, due in at +1.1% in March from +1.5% in February (y/y). The previous reading was the fastest rate of price pressures since April 2015 – when Shinzo Abe government enacted the (unpopular) sales tax reform. Accordingly, a retracement in inflation should cool market participants’ speculation over an early termination to the BOJ’s easing policies; the BOJ has recently signaled that the end of the extraordinary easing measures will come around the start of FY2019 – next April.
Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY
Read more: No Range Break in Sight Yet for EUR/USD
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— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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DAX & CAC Technical Outlook – More Strength Ahead?
DAX/CAC Technical Highlights:
- DAX yet to show signs of reversing despite resistance
- Big-picture topping potential remains
- Strength has the CAC trading in ‘open space’
DAX yet to show signs of reversing despite resistance
The DAX rally off the lows found opposition last week after a slight breach above a swing-high in February and just below the 200-day MA, however; the reversal sparked only very minor selling. Yesterday’s turn back higher has the market geared up to take on the 200-day and better.
On a breakout above the 200, a thorough testing of the underside of the double-top from November-January should be in play. The zone extends from 12745 up to the mid-12800s and is likely to prove problematic. How problematic, we’ll need to wait and see.
Should we see a strong rejection, then we’ll perhaps flip the script to a short bias, but if it is anything like what we saw this past week, then we’ll need to respect the trend off the March low. There is still the possibility that we see a long-term top develop should we see a strong turn down in the weeks ahead.
We’ll delve more into the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top scenario at a later time should it become relevant. If this scenario is to come to fruition, it’s worth noting that the DAX shouldn’t climb too much higher from current levels.
See this guide for 4 ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading.
DAX Daily Chart
Strength has the CAC trading in ‘open space’
Of the two big Euro-zone indices, the CAC has been an absolute monster off the late-March low. Nothing has provided any real opposition, not the 200-day MA, not the late-Feb swing-high. Looking higher, there isn’t much preventing the index from trading higher towards the January high, 2007 trend-line.
This doesn’t mean the index will necessarily get there without set-backs, or at all, but as far as quality price levels to lean on, resistance is difficult to come by. As long as we don’t see a strong turnabout in momentum, the benefit of the doubt remains with the long-side. Support first clocks in at the Feb swing-high around 5363.
Heads up, the ECB meets on Thursday. For live coverage, you can join my colleague Nick Cawley at 11:30 GMT time.
CAC Daily Chart
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Key Reversal Targets 2017 Slope Support
The British Pound has fallen more than 3% off the yearly highs with the decline taking out the April opening range lows. While the broader outlook does remain constructive, near-term the risk for a pullback in price has us looking for a possible exhaustion lower down near structural support.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart
Technical Outlook: In my last Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that Cable was approaching the 2018 highs at 1.4346 with a breach above this threshold needed to keep the broader long-bias in play. Price posted an outside-weekly reversal off this threshold before break below the objective April opening range lows yesterday. The decline also validates a break of the November slope line and leaves the risk lower while below the monthly open at 1.4024.
Note that yesterday’s close marked the fifth consecutive daily decline – three of the last five instances of such an occurrence saw a slight reprieve (a day or so) before registering a new low. That said, look for initial support along the lower parallel.
GBP/USD 240min Price Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action sees Cable trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the March highs with this week’s decline slipping below the monthly range lows / 61.8% retracement at 1.3965. IF this break is legit, topside advances should be capped by the weekly highs / monthly open resistance at 1.4024/31. A break lower from here targets the lower parallel / 100-day moving average at 1.3854/67 with broader bullish invalidation for the multi-year uptrend at the March low-day close at 1.3775.
Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading
Bottom line: The British pound has broken below the monthly opening range but looks like the decline may be losing some steam here near-term. From a trading standpoint, we’ll favor fading strength while below median-line of the descending pattern with the decline to ultimately offer more favorable long entries near long-term slope support.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
GBP/USD IG Client Positioning
- A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long GBPUSD- the ratio stands at +1.33 (57.0% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
- Long positions are 15.2% higher than yesterday and 83.1% higher from last week
- Short positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 42.6% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play
– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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Respect New Uptrend For Now
- The ASX 200 is climbing again
- Range trade has given way to a new upside channel
- That channel will take it up to 6000, however, and there bulls should probably worry
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The ASX 200 broke out of its ascending channel to the downside mid month, but price action since suggests that its subsequent consolidation may have been mere prelude to another upward foray.
The index has been admittedly rangebound since, trading between. April 16 and 17’s intraday low of 5831.1 and the intraday high of April 23 and 19 at 5904.9. At the time of writing (0100 GMT Tuesday) that range is history, if only just with the index a bare half dozen points above the top.
If it can close above there, then the 5934-5971 region last traded in mid-March could form the next target for the bulls. However above that the 6,000 level beckons and that barrier has proved too much for the index so often, both in the recent past and, indeed, for the past decade, that it’s probably wise to expect plenty of cashing out should it get there again.
Downside support may come in at the base of a new, nascent uptrend channel, which is at 5857.8 on Tuesday. Below that there is likely to be a cluster of near-term props forming in sum a band between April 10’s highs around 5848 and April 2’s closing low of 5686.
Still the uptrend should probably be respected for the moment, with the ASX currently in the middle of it. The Sydney stock benchmark’s simple moving averages fail to suggest anything obviously amiss, with the 20-50- and 100 day version in rank order and nicely spaced. The index’s Relative Strength Index is nudging higher, as you’d probably expect given the nice little run-up seen this month. However at a stolid 59 it doesn’t suggest any vicious overbuying.
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