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Eyeing a Bullish Break of Resistance?

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis

  • Canadian data due today, including CPI
  • USD/CAD moving in a sideways pattern, But in a higher level

See the Q2 USD and CAD forecasts to learn what is likely to drive price action through mid-year!

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive look at all next week’s data releases.

Just getting started?See our beginners’ guide for FX traders

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart (Feb 2019 –May 15, 2019)

USD/CAD price daily chart

Consolidating in a Higher Range

On May 6 USD/CAD corrected its upside movement carving out a lower high at 1.3494. Since hitting that high the pair has been moving in a sideways pattern pushing the price to decline towards the levels highlighted in last week’s article on May 10 and creating higher- low at 1.3380 to pull back the same day and close above 1.3410.

On May 13, USD/CAD opened with an upside gap, showing momentum for the price to rally towards the higher end of the trading range and breaking through the levels highlighted in last week article, also price closed above the higher uptrend line on the trend lines fan originated from April 22 low.

Read more in: USD/CAD looking for a break below 1.3376

Meanwhile, Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) on May 13 crossed from below 50 to 57, hinting to a start of an upward momentum.

To Sum up: since March 1 USD/CAD has been stuck in a consolidation zone (1.3286 – 1.3457). The price on April 23 broke higher and started to trade within a higher level (1.3516 – 1.3377) so if the pair remain above 1.3457 the price could push towards the higher end of the trading range at 1.3516. Resistance levels at: 1.3492 and 1.3506 are in focus. If the price closes above 1.3516 the pair could rally towards 1.3550 contingent on clearing the zone 1.3529 – 1.3536.

What if USD/CAD Edges Lower?

If the USD/CAD closes below 1.3457 the pair may swing lower towards 1.3410. Support levels at 1.3443 and 1.3429 need to be watched along the way. If the bearish movements are stronger (closing below 1.3410) it would suggest a decline towards 1.3377 however, support levels at 1.3400 and 1.3388 may be worth monitoring.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make

USD/CAD 2 Hours Price Chart (May 15, 2019)

USDCAD price 2H Chart

Bearish Potential Below 1.3456

On May 13 USD/CAD printed at 1.3488 – its highest level in 4 days. The price failed in the next day to break above this level, therefore, if the pair break above it would suggest a bullish sentiment towards 1.3506 taking into consideration the resistance level mentioned above.

If the pair fail to break above it would create a third high forming a Triple Top pattern where the neck line residing at 1.3456. USD/CAD needs to clear the supports levels at: 1.3473, 1.3465 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3461 before testing the neckline. If the price breaks and remains below 1.3456 a bearish bias could drive the price towards 1.3425 considering, the support levels mentioned above.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi



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Weekly Trade Levels for US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Loonie, Gold & Oil

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New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

DXY, Euro, Loonie Monthly Opening-Ranges Intact

The US Dollar Index is trading into the monthly opening-range highs into the start of the week and the focus is a reaction around the 98.05/10 resistance zone- note that the monthly ranges in Euro and Loonie also remain intact. In this webinar we review updated technical setups on DXY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, Crude Oil (WTI), Gold, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD & SPX.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Key Trade Levels in Focus

DXY – Immediate focus is on topside resistance at 98.05/10. Initial support at 97.87 with near-term bullish invalidation raised to 97.71.

EUR/USD – Euro is coiling into the monthly opening-range just above slope support. Immediate focus is on support at 1.1140. Initial resistance at 1.1187 with near-term bearish invalidation at monthly-open resistance at 1.1215– look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. A break lower would expose 1.1110.

GBP/USD – Sterling broke below multi-month slope support last week with price responding to near-term pitchfork support into the open. Initial resistance at 1.2798 with bearish invalidation at 1.2859. Downside support objectives at the August low-day close at 1.2697 and the 100% extension at 1.2662.

Gold – Risk for near-term recovery while above the yearly / monthly low-day close at 1270. Initial resistance at 1280 with near-term bearish invalidation with the monthly open a 1283.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Key Event Risk This Week

Economic Calendar- Key Data Realeses

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Active Trade Setups:

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex



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AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop

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MARKET DEVELOPMENT – AUD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk to S&P 500

DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

AUD: The Aussie outperforms following a shock election outcome, in which Prime Minister Scott Morrison secured re-election (full story). In reaction, the Aussie gapped higher at the Asia open, reclaiming the 0.69 handle against the greenback. However, as equity markets have headed lower throughout the European morning, risks are for gains to be faded. Alongside this, key headwinds in the form of trade war tensions and a potential RBA June rate cut are likely to limit upside. Reminder, RBA Governor Lowe due to speak tonight after RBA meeting minutes (calendar)

Crude Oil: Oil prices surged at the Asia open as Saudi Arabia signalled that cuts could be extended throughout the remainder of 2019 at the JMMC meeting, while President Trump had also stepped up his critical rhetoric towards Iran. Although, with equity prices beginning to push lower, oil prices have pared the majority of its initial gains.

Equities: US equity futures have headed lower amid the continued crackdown by the US on China’s Huawei, which in turn has chipmakers come under pressure, while Google also stated that they are to restrict the company’s use on android services. Elsewhere, Apple’s price target had been cut by HSBC to $174 (median street price target = $220), citing concerns over China, while tariff led price increases on Apple products could also have dire consequences on demand. Apple shares currently lower by 2.4% in pre-market.

AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop - US Market Open

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

DailyFX Economic Calendar: – North American Releases

AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop - US Market Open

IG Client Sentiment

AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop - US Market Open

How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading

WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY

  1. Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. COT Report: Japanese Yen and Euro Shorts Collapse, USD Longs Reduced” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  3. Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top” by Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
  4. Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX



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Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low

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Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) Price Analysis and Charts.

  • Gold (XAU) eyes a cluster of support.
  • Silver (XAG) makes afresh 2019 low as buyers disappear.

DailyFX Q2 Forecasts and Top 2019 Trading Opportunities.

Gold (XAU) Needs to Support to Hold

The sell-off on gold continues with the precious metal down around $30 in less than a week. Gold is under pressure from a resurgent US dollar, buoyed by last Friday’s Uni of Michigan data which smashed expectations and hit a multi-year high. The important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,287/oz. failed to provide any support when broken last week, while the $1,287 – $1,281/oz. zone made up of old horizontal support is being tested now. A clear break and close below opens the way to the recent double bottom around $1,266/oz. which is currently being guarded by the 200-day moving average at $1,268.6/oz. Below here the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,262/oz heaves into view.

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Gold (XAU) Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – May 20, 2019)

Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low

Silver (XAG) Nears a Fresh Six-Month Low

Another precious metal under heavy selling pressure. Silver is now at levels last seen in early December last year and is over 11% lower since making its recent high of $16.21/oz. in late February. The downtrend since the late-February high continues to be respected and it is possible that silver completely retraces all the way back down to the November 14 low at $13.89/oz. Psychological support at $14.00/oz. may slow the decline, while the CCI indicator shows that the market is extremely oversold.

Silver (XAG) Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – May 20, 2019)

Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low

Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio: Strategies and Tips.

IG Client Sentiment data show that retail traders are 79.1% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. Recent daily and weekly sentiment shifts give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias.

— Written by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1



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