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Don’t expect a quick bitcoin rebound from weekend rout: Chart analysts

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Bitcoin‘s plunge below $7,000 to a two-month low indicates the cryptocurrency will have a difficult time recovering, technical strategists say.

“The downtrend that began in early May is still intact and will need to be reversed to signal an improvement for BTC,” Robert Sluymer, technical strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said in an email.

For him, $7,777 is the key level bitcoin will have to top to signal an uptrend is underway.

Bitcoin 12-month performance

Source: CoinDesk

Bitcoin traded near $6,720 Monday morning. It fell more than 10 percent over the weekend to a low of $6,647.33 on Sunday, according to CoinDesk’s bitcoin price index.

The cryptocurrency is down about 50 percent this year, and more than 60 percent off its all-time high hit in mid-December.

Since then, bitcoin hasn’t consistently hit a technical level known as the “Upper Bollinger Band,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director, institutional equities at Nomura Instinet. Although the level changes, it stood near $8,577 Monday morning.

That means bitcoin will have to gain about 28 percent for a rally to hold.

The weekend drop in bitcoin followed news late Saturday EDT of a hack at a relatively small South Korean cryptocurrency exchange that involved lesser-known coins, and a Wall Street Journal report on Friday about U.S. regulators investigating potential price manipulation at some major cryptocurrency exchanges.

It’s important for bitcoin to hold support around $6,747 this week, Chris Kimble, CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, said in an email. If that fails, bitcoin could drop to near $2,000, he said.



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Global stock market sell-off not an isolated event

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A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, the United States, Dec. 4, 2018. 

Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, the United States, Dec. 4, 2018. 

The latest wave of heavy selling in financial markets is a clear sign of things to come, according to a new report from the world’s oldest international financial organization.

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS), an umbrella group for the world’s central banks, warned on Sunday that a normalization of monetary policy is likely to trigger a flurry of sharp sell-offs over the coming months.

“The market tensions we saw during this quarter were not an isolated event,” Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the BIS, said in the report.

“Monetary policy normalization was bound to be challenging, especially in light of trade tensions and political uncertainty,” Borio added.



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Fed is missing critical inflation trend, economic forecaster worries

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A veteran economic forecaster is worried the Federal Reserve and Wall Street are looking at inflation all wrong.

According to Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan, they’re largely missing a critical economic trend that shows inflation is in a downturn.

“Inflation is cyclical, and I don’t think everybody really understands that — in particular, the Fed and a lot of market participants,” he said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “They’re looking at the level of inflation, and it’s generally up there around near target. But what’s really important is the direction.”

Achuthan highlighted a chart as evidence the inflation cycle is rolling over. He believes it could have market-moving consequences because it could affect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“This is just a couple years of inflation cycles here,” he said. “We have PPI growth now and CPI growth both sitting at around 10 and 11 month lows. It’s not simply about oil. The peak in these things happened back in July.”

Achuthan, a self-proclaimed former super bull, has been bearish this year. On “Trading Nation” last April, he turned sour on economic growth because leading indicators were pointing to a slowdown that was picking up momentum.

For Achuthan to become bullish again, he said two things need to happen: The Fed must become more aware of the inflation downturn and leading growth indicators must turn up. The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide whether to raise rates for the fourth time this year.

“With inflation ticking lower, they should consider stopping. But fixated on a 49-year low in the jobless rate and a 9 ½-year high in wage growth, it’s not clear that they will stop just yet,” Achuthan told CNBC by email.



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Harvard professor Roland Fryer faces reports of sexual harassment

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Harvard University professor Roland Fryer speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York on Sept. 25, 2008.

Ramin Talaie | Corbis Historical | Getty Images

Harvard University professor Roland Fryer speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York on Sept. 25, 2008.

A prominent Harvard University economics professor is being investigated for sexual harassment, according to a new report.

Roland G. Fryer Jr., a 2011 MacArthur “Genius” fellowship recipient, is the one of the latest powerful men to get flagged amid the #MeToo movement, which took hold last year. More than 200 men have lost their jobs or major roles as a result, the New York Times said in October.

A Harvard investigator found that Fryer was involved in “unwelcome conduct of a sexual nature” with four women who worked at Fryer’s research lab, the New York Times reported on Friday. The investigator learned that one person who made an accusation about Fryer took disability leave in response to Fryer’s behavior, according to the report.

Allegations about Fryer came to light earlier this year but Friday’s New York Times article provides new details.

One woman who worked in the lab reportedly said that Fryer regularly made inappropriate comments about women, but that his reputation for being vindictive made it difficult for people to speak up. And two women told the investigator they disapproved of how Fryer had put his crotch in the face of a woman at the lab by placing his foot on her desk, the article said.

Read the full article here.



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