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Dollar Range Poised to Give Way with NFP, FOMC in Sight

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The U.S. Dollar continues to bounce in a relatively tight range, but with Non-Farm Payrolls on the docket for later this week along with a widely-expected FOMC rate hike for next Wednesday; this range is unlikely to last for long.

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– In this webinar, we used price action to look at majors markets ahead of Friday’s release of Non-Farm Payrolls and next week’s widely expected hike out of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Dollar has been rather directionless of recent, and current price action is testing last week’s high which syncs-in fairly well with a swing-low from two weeks before. We looked at a Fibonacci retracement drawn around the bullish move that started in September, and this offered a 38.2% level at 93.57. A bullish break above this level opens the door for top-side exposure while a break below the 61.8% retracement at 92.59 opens the door for short-side exposure.

EUR/USD appears to be trying to dig-out higher-low support after last week saw prices push up to 1.1950. The group of swing-highs from October was initially helping to set support but of recent, prices have started to slide below that prior zone. This exposes the prior swing-low around 1.1712, and if we do see support come-in above this price, this opens the door for bullish setups playing off of a higher-low for top-side continuation. As of now, support appears to be forming around a trend-line projection taken from a set of prior swing-highs.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

– GBP/USD: We then moved over to Cable, which has continued to push-higher after last week’s news around the Brexit divorce bill. GBP/USD is falling below a key level right now that exists at 1.3478. This is the 50% retracement of the Brexit move in the pair, and this gave us a week’s worth of support after the bullish breakout in September. After this most recent bullish run, we saw some short-term support develop at that level, but selling pressure eventually punched prices back-below. Bullish continuation can wait for prices to move back-above 1.3500, after which 1.3478 could become an interesting area for higher-low support on bullish continuation.

AUD/USD remains as an attractive candidate for USD-strength continuation. Even with USD getting weak of recent, AUD/USD has remained near longer-term support. This will likely remain as on eof the more attractive venues to trade for USD-continuation, and if we do see the larger theme of U.S. Dollar strength return, we could be looking at a .7500-break.

EUR/JPY has been range-bound for much of the past three months, with a considerable amount of support building in the zone from 131.42-132.05. The resistance side of the coin has recently come into play, as the 61.8% retracement of the 2014-2016 run at 134.41 has helped to set a previous double-top in the pair. We saw another test near this zone on Friday and since then, sellers have started to take over. This exposes the zone around 131.42-132.05 for bullish support plays. We also looked at the possibility of a bullish mid-line play using the area around 133.10.

GBP/JPYPossibly a more attractive candidate for trading GBP-strength than what we saw in GBP/USD. GBP/JPY is digging out support around a Fibonacci level at 150.87. This is the 38.2% retracement of the 2015-2016 major move in the pair. This price has previously helped to set resistance, and we’re now seeing short-term support come-in around this area. Risk-reward with current technical could present a challenge, but a slightly deeper pullback opens the door for a re-test of the previous high around 152.75.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

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Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Technical Forecast:

  • The Dow Jones faces considerable nearby resistance
  • The DAX 30 enjoys nearby trendline support, but must surmount a Fib level to press higher
  • To the delight of technical traders, the FTSE 100 will have to unravel two conflicting candlestick patterns

Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

Amid a whirlwind of trade war developments, equity markets across the globe had to negotiate significant volatility. After the S&P 500 posted its largest gap lower since 2009 on Monday, US equities had their work cut out for them – but were able to recoup most losses. In the days to come, equity markets will continue to struggle with the same themes. Expect technical levels to be strained, especially if volatility persists.

Dow Jones Technical Forecast: Bearish

The Dow Jones ended the week marginally lower than it closed the Friday prior. More importantly however, the Index resides beneath two nearby Fib levels – the 61.8% retracement from March to May at 25,775 and the 78.6% at 23,823. Each level will look to provide resistance early next week. If those levels are surpassed, the 50% level at 25,952 will come into play. The area rebuked prices multiple times last week and should play a similar role next week.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (February – May) (Chart 1)

DJI

How to Day Trade the Dow Jones

With considerable topside resistance, the Industrial Average will once again have its work cut out for it. If attempted rallies are curtailed, the 78.6% level around 25,523 may fortify prices. Beyond that, the 25,400 area should provide further buoyance, despite a break lower on Monday. The area marks March’s lows and provided moderate support last week.

DAX 30 Technical Forecast: Bullish

After a considerable surge last week, the German DAX seems to have its sights set on a continuation rally. Luckily for bulls, the 23.6% Fib level at 12,169 and an ascending trendline from December’s low will look to provide nearby support. The trendline previously marked the lower bound of the ascending channel the Index found itself in during the first-quarter rebound. Should the support hold, the channel may become pertinent once more.

DAX Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (April – May) (Chart 2)

DAX

Should the index continue higher, highs from last week – around 12,300, should pose initial resistance. Secondarily, the 61.8% Fib level at 12,331 will come into play. If both those levels are surmounted, subsequent resistance will be offered by the upper-bound of the channel and at 12,437 – the full extension of the Fib level from March’s lows to May’s highs.

FTSE 100 Technical Forecast: Bullish

The FTSE 100 closed Friday’s session to leave a perfect hanging-man candlestick on the daily chart. Although shorter time frames are typically better suited for weekly forecasts, the candlestick patterns are too clear to ignore. A hanging man candlestick at the top of an uptrend generally precedes a trend reversal, but what precedes the Friday candle may carry more weight.

FTSE 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (February – May) (Chart 3)

UKX

Prior to the hanging man, the candlesticks from the Tuesday through Thursday sessions form three white soldiers – in this case green soldiers. This candlestick pattern offers a bullish signal, usually preceding further gains. With the conflicting candlestick signals, technical traders will have a lot to look for next week.

That said, the most likely outcome – in my opinion – is a brief retracement early in the week to fulfil the hanging man prophecy and to consolidate. In this scenario, the 23.6% Fib level at 7,296 would pose as critical support. Once the consolidation is underway, the three white soldiers may drive the FTSE 100 higher as the week progresses. For follow up on these technical patterns, or to ask any questions, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: Gold Price Plummets, Seeks Technical Support Near May Lows

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Looking for a fundamental perspective on Equities? Check out the Weekly Equity Fundamental Forecast



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S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

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Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | Trade War Tensions Dictating Price Action
  • DAX | EU/US Trade Dispute is Delayed, Not Resolved

FTSE

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | Trade War Tensions Dictating Price Action

The S&P 500 is on course to drop over 0.5% for the week as investor angst over US/China trade wars continues to weigh on risk appetite, most notably in the US benchmarks. However, while a mid-week bounce has seen losses pared slightly since the escalation with the S&P 500 now down 3% (Prev. -5.4%), the trade sensitive sectors have maintained their losses with the US Semiconductor Index down 10% (Prev. -11%). Consequently, focus will continue to remain trade wars.

SPX

Markets Pricing in Fed Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve have continued to maintain the mantra that they will be on hold for the foreseeable future and that there is little reason to provide a cut. However, bonds markets have continued to price in Fed easing, with money markets fully priced for a rate reduction in December. Alongside this, the 3M/10yr US yield curve has continued to dip into inversion amid the rising trade war tensions. The upcoming week will see commentary from Fed Chair Powell, however, with markets pricing in a dovish Fed, the bar is high for Powell to match those dovish expectations as was evidenced in the post monetary policy decision speech on April 24th, in which the Chair noted that soft inflation was “transitory”.

FED

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

DAX | EU/US Trade Dispute is Delayed, Not Resolved

A firm week for the DAX, which recorded gains of over 1%, among the major factors behind this had stemmed from source reports stating that the Trump Administration were to delay imposing auto-tariffs on EU imports for an additional 6-months (full story), which in turn saw the European auto names surge. The decision to delay could largely be attributed to the fact that US/China tensions have escalated. However, this is merely a delay and not a resolution. Noteworthy calendar events: ECB Draghi & Praet (Thurs), Eurozone PMIs (Thur).

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Jan 2019May 2019)

DAX

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

Looking for a technical perspective on Equities? Check out the Weekly Equity Technical Forecast



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Euro Weakness to Remain the Theme

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EURUSD Technical Highlights:

  • Euro looks headed towards the April low or worse
  • 4-hr chart has a developing structure to pay attention to

Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page for intermediate-term forecasts, educational content aimed all experience levels, and more.

Euro looks headed towards the April low or worse

To be clear, trading EURUSD lately hasn’t been an easy endeavor as low volatility conditions continue to be a headwind for traders. We’ve seen some movement in other majors (GBPUSD in particular) but not in the most widely traded pair. That will eventually change, but until it does we have to continue to take what is presented to us and be patient with set-ups.

With that said, the general trading bias remains the same as it has for months – lower. Trend and price action continue to be supportive of this bias. A run on the April low at 11109 or worse looks to be in store sometime in the coming sessions, but the path could be a little shaky.

Dialing in a bit closer to the 4-hr time-frame, a channel is becoming visible even if it isn’t perfect, with candlestick wicks clouding the picture. A small bounce from the lower parallel may make for the best scenario, as the lower parallel’s importance is further cemented and a nearby low is created in the process.

A bounce and subsequent breakdown could offer a solid structure (see 4-hr chart) for would-be shorts from both a probability and risk/reward standpoint. Selling right here at support puts one at risk of a bounce with good stop placement difficult to determine.

A bounce that carries the euro beyond 11225 will give pause to sellers and bring into play the area around 12265 (recent highs/trend-lines) and possibly become an even more attractive spot to short. The bottom line is that the Euro looks headed lower, but it may pay to sit tight and wait for a better look before entering new positions. If currently in a short from higher levels, then one could use the aforementioned highs and trend-lines to manage risk accordingly.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning in major markets could signal the next price move.

EURUSD Daily Chart (April low, 11000s could be soon)

EURUSD

EURUSD 4-hr Chart (Channel/Bear-flag)

EURUSD

Helpful Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

Looking for a fundamental perspective on The Euro ? Check out the Weekly EUR Fundamental Forecast



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