Connect with us

Strategies & Ideas

Bradley Campbell Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Published

on


Bradley Campbell
Bradley Campbell

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Bradley Campbell is a sociologist whose research focuses on moral conflict — clashes of right and wrong and how they are handled. His work primarily looked at genocide arising from large-scale interethnic conflicts , but recently he has begun to examine smaller-scale conflicts on modern college campuses. Since about 2013 he has studied the phenomena of micro aggression complaints, calls for trigger warnings and safe spaces. He views this new era as, “Manifestations of ongoing moral change and the clash of different moral ideals.” He addresses these topics in his book, “The Rise of Victimhood Culture: Micro aggressions, Safe Spaces, and the New Culture Wars.”

How did Bradley shift from macro aggression and genocide around the world to micro aggression on college campuses? He was always interested in answering, “Why do people have conflict? And what causes someone to handle that conflict in a particular way?” How are conflicts handled with the legal system? When someone has a grievance, do they avoid them? So what makes someone choose violence over law or avoidance?

With every generation, comes a different way of being taught how to handle conflict. Where one generation may have been taught to have thicker skin and not take things so seriously, today’s kids have been taught to take offense to every micro insult that might make them feel uneasy. Where there is more equality and in places that value diversity, there tends to be more sensitivity to insults – therefore lots of micro insults tend to add up to big offenses.

Are college campuses a place that should display robust conversation? Or should they be a place where free speech is censored? Bradley argues that, if anything, college campuses should encourage free speech. Unfortunately, words are being viewed as literally violent and should be censored. Michael and Bradley end the conversation on where college students stand on Trump and politics today.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Hate crimes
  • Genocide
  • Micro aggression
  • Macro aggression
  • Victim culture
  • Trigger warnings
  • Trust in government
  • Safe spaces
  • Free speech

Mentions & Resources:





Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Strategies & Ideas

Weekly Market Recap Nov 11, 2018

Published

on

By


This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic.   Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been.   Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!

The market is interpreting Wedneday’s result as insuring that “no big things will get done,” in Washington between now and 2020, Craig Birk, chief investment officer at Personal Capital told MarketWatch. “The market appreciates the relative certainty of the slow legislative agenda.” he said.

“As President Trump plans his 2020 reelection campaign, a gridlocked Congress is unlikely to deliver any notable wins to help expand his agenda. Therefore, Trump will likely focus on his broad executive powers to affect trade and national security,” wrote Dec Mullarkey, managing director, investment strategy, Sun Life Investment Management, in a research note.

We are still seeing quite a bout of volatility – usually rallies that will last will settle into some sort of “calm” so we are not there yet.   In fact the move to the upside got so extreme mid week that the NYSE McClellan Oscillator actually went to overbought levels for the first time since spring (more on that below).

Nothing of note from the Federal Reserve Thursday – exactly as expected:

In a statement that was largely intact from its September meeting, the Fed said, “The Committee expects further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate.” It also said the risks to the economic outlook “appear roughly balanced” and noted that inflation remains near its 2% target.

The absence of any major changes to its commentary suggests that the central bank plans to raise interest rates in December and plans three hikes next year, in line with market expectations.

Massive drop in oil the past few weeks!  Some contrasting thoughts on the implication of this selling can be found here.

U.S. crude oil prices settled in bear-market territory on Thursday, defined as a drop of at least 20% from a recent peak, and that decline may invite questions about the health of demand and the vitality of economies around the globe. Along with other key commodities, oil has often been used as a gauge of world wide vitality.

Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at R.W. Baird, said in an interview with MarketWatch that the oil’s bear market could be spooking investors. “Oil being down could be a sign that the global economy is in a tough spot,” he said.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 2.1% while the NASDAQ added 0.7%.

In economic news, the ISM services index slipped to 60.3 in October, down from 61.6 in September, but beating the 58.6 average estimate.  Still a very strong reading – anything over 50 marks expansion.

We don’t normally mention this one but Friday the producer-price index for October rose 0.6%, versus the consensus estimate of 0.2%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, producer prices increased by 0.5%.  That’s a very “hot” number and one the Fed would be interested in.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 …not via Jill Mislinski.

This is a great infographic from Statista about those representatives we just elected.  The number of committee hearings about you know…actual policy… has fallen off a cliff vs 25 years ago.

Over time the legislative process has been breaking down, with less legislation getting into committees. According to Pro Publica, the count of committee hearings dealing directly with legislation has dropped significantly between the 101st Congress, governing between 1989-1990, and the 114th Congress, governing between 2015-2016. The number of Senate committee hearings dealing with legislation has fallen by about 85 percent over this period… the 114th Congress conducted about 72 percent fewer committee hearings dealing with legislation than the 101st Congress did.

The week ahead…

Earnings season is coming to an end and we are in a bit of an impactful economic news drought here aside from retail sales hitting Thursday.  Technical traders should be watching how these recent rally acts – can markets go sideways for a while before a new leg up.  Or was that rally the oversold bounce and can bears – for the first time in eons – impart their will over a sustained period of time.

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500 obviously had the better week – both indexes crossed over their 200 day moving averages but only the S&P 500 held it by end of week.  So the question of the week of course is “is this the beginning of the rally or was THAT the oversold bounce?”  These next few weeks will be very interesting as a bullish take can be we have an “inverse head and shoulders” forming (if the market can go sideways for a bit) while a bearish take would require another bout of selling – and then creating a new low below the one seen at end of October.  No one knows today but those are some of the things to watch!

This Russell 2000 continues to act poorly – this long trend line connecting lows of August 2017 and February 2018 served as resistance this week – the index rallied to it and was rejected.  The 200 day moving average is about to get crossed by the 50 day moving average which is seen as a negative in technical terms as well.  This chart reflects the smaller and mid sized public companies in the country – which are far less multi national – so it’s interesting to observe how much weaker it has been this past year.  Especially if you believe markets forecast the future ….

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is in the black – not only that it hit its first overBOUGHT level since Spring Wednesday.  It’s difficult to quite trust this with the technical damage done on the charts but usually it does signal a positive sign when it’s positive.

Long term: The S&P 500 looks to be in decent shape here but the NASDAQ continues to trail at the bottom end of this long term channel so it’s the one to keep an eye on the next month.  Any reversal back down that sustains would mark a big change in character.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

CVS (CVS) rose 5.7% Tuesday after the drugstore and health care company announced 6.7% same-store-sales growth for the third-quarter.

E.l.f. Beauty (ELF) rallied 19.2% Tuesday, after its Monday-evening earnings report showed the cosmetics company producing third-quarter projections for revenue and profits that were better than expected. The firm also raised its full-year guidance for 2018.  Now we eagerly await results from Hobbit Beauty….

Generic drug maker Mylan (MYL) rose 16.1%, after the pharmaceutical company announced Monday evening that its profits more than doubled in the third quarter from the year previous.

Michael Kors (KORS) tumbled 14.6%, after the fashion luxury group missed revenue expectations in a Wednesday morning earnings release.

Office Depot (ODP) popped 24% after the company announced revenue and sales figures Wednesday morning that beat analysts’ third-quarter estimates. The office-goods retailer also raised its full year guidance for 2018.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) sank 13% Thursday after an earnings call late Wednesday during which CEO Matthew Maddox said he anticipates a “soft” market in the fourth quarter for its Macau business line.  Been a rough 6 months for this stock!

TripAdvisor (TRIP) surged 15% Thursday after it released better-than-expected earnings.

Yelp (YELP) tumbled 26.6% Friday, after the companymissed Wall Street sales targets and lowered fourth-quarter guidance, in a Thursday evening release.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



Source link

Continue Reading

Strategies & Ideas

Peter Boettke Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Published

on

By


Peter Boettke
Peter Boettke

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Peter Boettke is economist of the Austrian School. He is currently an economics and philosophy professor at George Mason University; the BB&T Professor for the Study of Capitalism, Vice President for Research, and Director of the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at GMU. His newest book is “F. A. Hayek: Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy (Great Thinkers in Economics).”

Peter got hooked on economics during college after being hired for his first job – digging pools. He saw taxes being taken out of his pay and personally felt the negative effects. The philosophy behind why his checks were being garnished didn’t sit well with him. Rather than be frustrated, he got fascinated with the way economics worked and quickly saw there was something obviously wrong with the way government was ran. Along with signing up for all the economics classes he could, Peter went to the library and read. He had “a-ha” moments in those reading sessions that has molded him to be the economist he is today.

Michael and Peter touch on a broad scope of topics including: What is Peter’s perspective on President Trump’s view of trade wars and tariffs? Should intellectual property be protected? What is rent seeking and how does it relate to Jeff Bezos? What separates the American entrepreneurial spirit from entrepreneurs overseas?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trade deficits
  • Trump politics
  • Politics in the marketplace
  • Zero sum game
  • Jeff Bezos and rent seeking
  • The market for privileges
  • Merchant class mentality

Mentions & Resources:





Source link

Continue Reading

Strategies & Ideas

Weekly Market Recap Nov 4, 2018

Published

on

By


Words rarely spoken the past few years:  “The market was due for a bounce back after some intense selling.”  Modest selloffs Monday and Friday bookmarked 1%+ rallies Tue-Thu on the S&P 500.  It’s not so much the rally during a selloff to examine as the action after the rally.   So we should have a good amount of information at this time next week – bears have been so used to rallies just continuing straight up the past half decade plus so we’ll see if there is a change in nature.  Aside from fixing some technical damage bulls would want to see a significant drop in volatility.

October once again struck as one of the trickiest months on the calendar for markets:  The S&P 500 shed 6.9% for its biggest monthly decline since September 2011, while the NASDAQ dropped 9.2% in October for the biggest fall since November 2008.

(Far) across the pond, we mentioned the bullish “outside reversal” day a few weeks ago in the Chinese market – despite the selling in U.S. markets this reversal held up and the Chinese market looks like it has put in a short term bottom at least!

For the week the S&P 500 gained 2.4% while the NASDAQ added 2.7%.

In economic news, Monday the government announced consumer spending rose 0.4% in September, matching forecasts. Incomes rose a smaller 0.2%, the smallest rise in 13 months.

Thursday, ISM Manufacturing fell to a six month low of 57.7 vs economists’ expectations of 58.7.  Still a very strong number.

Friday, the government reported job gains of 250,000 in October, beating economists’ expectations for payrolls to rise by 202,000. The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.7%, while the report showed year-over-year wage gains rising to 3.1%, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3%.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Earnings season is slowing down but still some heavy hitters coming in.  For technical traders, let’s see the nature of the bounce in duration and strength!  Mid term elections hit Tuesday and China – U.S. trade talk speculation continues.   The Federal Reserve meets this week and is widely expected to raise rates at next month’s meeting.

Index charts:

Short term: Similar stories on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ although the S&P 500 is in a tad better shape as it’s back near a trend line that connects the major lows of 2018.  However both remain below the 200 day moving average, although not far off.

This Russell 2000 is still far off from the 200 day moving average and soon enough we have the danger of the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day which is seen as a negative.  This has been the worst performing of the indexes of the past half year, if not longer.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator turned positive for the first time in 2 months.  Let’s see if it sustains – if so that would be a positive.  A bit too early to jump on that bandwagon considering the state of the indexes but we should know better in a week how to judge this.

Long term: This past week’s rally in both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ helped push them to/near some support trend lines.  Again – next few weeks will be interesting – if markets reverse back down that will mean a clear break of very long term support lines and mark a stark change in character.  If indexes rally, we’ll be back to business as “usual”.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Monday, Red Hat (RHT) jumped 45% after IBM said it would acquire the open-source software company for $190 a share in a cash deal.

Tuesday, General Electric (GE) sunk 8.8% after it slashed its dividend and reported disappointing third-quarter results but announced a restructuring of its power business.  The rest of the week didn’t go too well either!

Blast from the past Akamai Technologies (AKAM) surged 17% Tuesday after the firm beat third-quarter estimates and raised its fourth-quarter guidance and full-year outlook in an earnings release Monday evening.

Under Armour (UAA) jumped 25% after the company announced third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ estimates.

Wednesday, General Motors (GM) jumped 9.1% after third-quarter earnings and revenue came in above expectations.

Thursday, Wynn Resorts (WYNN) soared 12% following an SEC filing that indicated that the firm will take out a $500 million loan that will be used in part to buy back stock.

Friday, Apple (AAPL) sunk 6.6% after the tech giant posted results that were better than expected but disappointed on its outlook. It also said it would no longer disclose unit sales of its products for investors, as it has for more than a decade.

Starbucks (SBUX) rallied 9.7% Friday after the firm posted same-store sales growth of 4%.

GoPro (GPRO) shares tumbled the most in almost 10 months Friday, after giving an outlook for sales in the holiday period that missed analysts’ estimates.

Have a great week and we’ll see you back here Sunday!



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.