Connect with us

Forex

AUDUSD RSI Approaches Oversold Zone Ahead of Australia Employment

Published

on


Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

Updates to Australia’s Employment Report may do little to influence the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as the economy is expected to add a mere 15.0K jobs in April.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Signs of limited job growth may sway the outlook for monetary policy as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warns that ‘a further improvement in the labour market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target,’ and the central bank may adopt a more dovish tone at the next meeting on June 4 as ‘the inflation data for the March quarter were noticeably lower than expected.’ In turn, a print of 15.0K or lower may produce headwinds for the Australian dollar as it fuels bets for an imminent RBA rate-cut, and Governor Philip Lowe & Co. may continue to change their tune over the coming months especially as the U.S. and China, Australia’s largest trading partner, struggle to reach a trade deal.

At the same time, an above-forecast print for Australia Employment may trigger a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as it encourages the RBA to retain a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy. Sign up and join DailyFX Junior Currency Analyst Daniel Dubrovsky LIVEto cover the fresh updates to Australia’s employment report.

Impact that the Australia Employment report had on AUD/USD during the last print

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAR

2019

04/18/2019 01:30:00 GMT

15.0K

25.7K

+11

-17

March 2019 Australia Employment Change

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of audusd 5-minute chart

Employment in Australia increased 25.7K during March after expanding a revised 10.7K the month prior, while the jobless rate climbed to 5.0% from 4.9% during the same period as the Participation Rate advanced to 65.7% from 65.6%. The pickup was led by a 48.3K rise in full-time positions, while part-time jobs narrowed 22.6K after rising a revised 12.4K in February.

Nevertheless, the initial reaction to the better-than-expected employment report was short-lived, with AUD/USD pulling back ahead of the 0.7200 handle to close the day at 0.7150. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart

  • Keep in mind, the AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7153), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in April.
  • With that said, AUD/USD stands at risk of giving back the rebound from the 2019-low (0.6745) as the wedge/triangle formation in both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) unravels, with the break/close below the 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) area opening up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6850 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6880 (23.6% retracement).
  • Next downside hurdle comes in around 0.6730 (100% expansion), but will need to keep a close eye on the RSI as the oscillator approaches oversold territory, with a break below 30 raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as the bearish momentum gathers pace.

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Forex

Weekly Trade Levels for US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Loonie, Gold & Oil

Published

on

By


New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

DXY, Euro, Loonie Monthly Opening-Ranges Intact

The US Dollar Index is trading into the monthly opening-range highs into the start of the week and the focus is a reaction around the 98.05/10 resistance zone- note that the monthly ranges in Euro and Loonie also remain intact. In this webinar we review updated technical setups on DXY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, Crude Oil (WTI), Gold, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD & SPX.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Key Trade Levels in Focus

DXY – Immediate focus is on topside resistance at 98.05/10. Initial support at 97.87 with near-term bullish invalidation raised to 97.71.

EUR/USD – Euro is coiling into the monthly opening-range just above slope support. Immediate focus is on support at 1.1140. Initial resistance at 1.1187 with near-term bearish invalidation at monthly-open resistance at 1.1215– look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. A break lower would expose 1.1110.

GBP/USD – Sterling broke below multi-month slope support last week with price responding to near-term pitchfork support into the open. Initial resistance at 1.2798 with bearish invalidation at 1.2859. Downside support objectives at the August low-day close at 1.2697 and the 100% extension at 1.2662.

Gold – Risk for near-term recovery while above the yearly / monthly low-day close at 1270. Initial resistance at 1280 with near-term bearish invalidation with the monthly open a 1283.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Key Event Risk This Week

Economic Calendar- Key Data Realeses

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Active Trade Setups:

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex



Source link

Continue Reading

Forex

AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop

Published

on

By


MARKET DEVELOPMENT – AUD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk to S&P 500

DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

AUD: The Aussie outperforms following a shock election outcome, in which Prime Minister Scott Morrison secured re-election (full story). In reaction, the Aussie gapped higher at the Asia open, reclaiming the 0.69 handle against the greenback. However, as equity markets have headed lower throughout the European morning, risks are for gains to be faded. Alongside this, key headwinds in the form of trade war tensions and a potential RBA June rate cut are likely to limit upside. Reminder, RBA Governor Lowe due to speak tonight after RBA meeting minutes (calendar)

Crude Oil: Oil prices surged at the Asia open as Saudi Arabia signalled that cuts could be extended throughout the remainder of 2019 at the JMMC meeting, while President Trump had also stepped up his critical rhetoric towards Iran. Although, with equity prices beginning to push lower, oil prices have pared the majority of its initial gains.

Equities: US equity futures have headed lower amid the continued crackdown by the US on China’s Huawei, which in turn has chipmakers come under pressure, while Google also stated that they are to restrict the company’s use on android services. Elsewhere, Apple’s price target had been cut by HSBC to $174 (median street price target = $220), citing concerns over China, while tariff led price increases on Apple products could also have dire consequences on demand. Apple shares currently lower by 2.4% in pre-market.

AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop - US Market Open

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

DailyFX Economic Calendar: – North American Releases

AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop - US Market Open

IG Client Sentiment

AUDUSD Soars on Shock Election, Apple Shares Slump, Risk of S&P 500 Drop - US Market Open

How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading

WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY

  1. Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. COT Report: Japanese Yen and Euro Shorts Collapse, USD Longs Reduced” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  3. Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top” by Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
  4. Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX



Source link

Continue Reading

Forex

Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low

Published

on

By


Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) Price Analysis and Charts.

  • Gold (XAU) eyes a cluster of support.
  • Silver (XAG) makes afresh 2019 low as buyers disappear.

DailyFX Q2 Forecasts and Top 2019 Trading Opportunities.

Gold (XAU) Needs to Support to Hold

The sell-off on gold continues with the precious metal down around $30 in less than a week. Gold is under pressure from a resurgent US dollar, buoyed by last Friday’s Uni of Michigan data which smashed expectations and hit a multi-year high. The important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,287/oz. failed to provide any support when broken last week, while the $1,287 – $1,281/oz. zone made up of old horizontal support is being tested now. A clear break and close below opens the way to the recent double bottom around $1,266/oz. which is currently being guarded by the 200-day moving average at $1,268.6/oz. Below here the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,262/oz heaves into view.

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Gold (XAU) Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – May 20, 2019)

Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low

Silver (XAG) Nears a Fresh Six-Month Low

Another precious metal under heavy selling pressure. Silver is now at levels last seen in early December last year and is over 11% lower since making its recent high of $16.21/oz. in late February. The downtrend since the late-February high continues to be respected and it is possible that silver completely retraces all the way back down to the November 14 low at $13.89/oz. Psychological support at $14.00/oz. may slow the decline, while the CCI indicator shows that the market is extremely oversold.

Silver (XAG) Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – May 20, 2019)

Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low

Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio: Strategies and Tips.

IG Client Sentiment data show that retail traders are 79.1% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. Recent daily and weekly sentiment shifts give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias.

— Written by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.